Oscar Predictions: Will 'Rings' Rule?

Unlike previous years, this year's Oscar celebration promises to end like a classic movie cliffhanger.

Here's why: While "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring" rang in the most nominations for its sweeping adaptation of the J.R.R. Tolkien classic novel, it's far from being a sure thing to sweep the major categories it's nominated in, thanks to the compelling drama "A Beautiful Mind," and the rousing, breathtaking musical "Moulin Rouge." It's really anybody's game.

Perhaps the most difficult part of making Oscar predictions is preventing my personal preferences from creeping into the thought process. After all, it's not about who or what I want to to win, it's about who or what I think will win. I'm not an academy member, so, who I think should win doesn't matter. The same goes for my fellow critics and their organizations, and the members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (the Golden Globes don't have any influence on the Oscars, contrary to popular opinion). This is Hollywood's party, not ours.

Still, that won't prevent me from throwing some personal observations in from time to time. I'm allowed to have some fun, aren't I?

Best Supporting Actress: Traditionally the supporting actor and actress categories yield the most surprises (remember Geena Davis, Marisa Tomei, and most recently, Marcia Gay Harden?). That dark horse this year appears to be Kate Winslet in "Iris," an actress who's unafraid to take career risks.

But don't exactly count out Helen Mirren for "Gosford Park." The film's an actor's piece, and an Oscar would give some validation to the huge ensemble cast for its achievement, and reward Mirren for her career, to boot. Forget about prior winners Tomei ("In the Bedroom") and Maggie Smith ("Gosford Park") -- the academy has this wonderful way of spreading the wealth, and Oscars two and three are hard to come by, Marisa and Maggie (and for the record, four is nearly impossible, unless your name is Katharine Hepburn).

If you were to bet on what the critics think, this year's Oscar would seems to be all but a lock for Jennifer Connelly for "A Beautiful Mind" because of bevy of critics and industry awards. But again, the critics don't vote on these awards, so she may very well be at square one.

Who Will Win: Connelly. I suspect it's not entirely because of "A Beautiful Mind," but rather for being overlooked last year for her hauntingly heartbreaking portrayal of a crack addict in "Requiem For a Dream" (in favor of its studio's campaign push for Ellen Burstyn, who got the nomination for the film instead). Connelly is far more memorable in that role than in "Mind," and this will be the academy's way of making amends.

Best Supporting Actor: It may sound like a cop-out, but every actor in this category is deserving of a win. Jon Voight became Howard Cosell in "Ali," but shortsighted voters might have looked at the role as more of an impersonation than a performance. Jim Broadbent may suffer from the lack of exposure of the drama "Iris," but may get a bump from his role in the high-profile "Moulin Rouge."

Along with Broadbent, Ben Kingsley is easily a frontrunner for "Sexy Beast" as a menacing thug that plays like "Gandhi's" evil twin.

Ian McKellen gained momentum earlier this month with a best supporting award from the Screen Actors Guild, and those peers that are academy members will likely cast a vote for him again. Pigeon-holed by earlier lightweight roles, Ethan Hawke may come out of nowhere with his convincing deer-in-the-headlights turn in "Training Day," but that's unlikely given his stiff competition.

Who Will Win: McKellen. Although he blends seamlessly into a wonderful ensemble of "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring," his wizard Gandalf is really the soul of the movie. Plus, he's a movie veteran (as well as respected stage thespian) who deserves the recognition.

Best Director: Before you start moaning about how Baz Luhrmann was snubbed for "Moulin Rouge," consider this: If the academy decided to release vote totals one day, we might discover that he came in sixth place in voting, missing the fifth slot by one vote. In other words, it's doubtful that there was a concerted effort on the academy's part to purposefully make sure he wouldn't be nominated. The same goes for the other best picture director, Todd Field for "In the Bedroom."

So, given the field of entrants, the only true contenders for the director Oscar are Ron Howard for "A Beautiful Mind" and Peter Jackson for "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring." Jackson proved his masterful storytelling abilities with "Rings," but unlike Howard, he doesn't have a Director's Guild of America award, perhaps the most accurate predictor of the best director Oscar.

Forget about "Gosford Park" getting the director's Oscar, and it has nothing to do with the film. That's because Robert Altman, who is no stranger to thumbing his nose at the Hollywood establishment, has chosen to take on America's political policies, too. In a time of war, that may irk the academy, and that may cost him any chance of winning.

As for the other directors, Ridley Scott masterfully created organized chaos with "Black Hawk Down," and David Lynch created just plain chaos with "Mulholland Drive." But with no other major nominations for the films, the nominations may just be the academy's way of honoring the directors for their career achievements; nothing more, nothing less.

Who Will Win: Howard. He's worked hard to get to this stage in his career, transforming from a comedic to a serious director -- and the academy in the past has overwhelmingly honored dramas over comedies. It's also helpful that the academy may choose to honor Jackson in another category. The only thing going against Howard is the fact that he's one of the five DGA winners in the last 53 years who didn't go on to win the Oscar.

Best Actor: With all due respect to Sean Penn ("I Am Sam"), Tom Wilkinson ("In the Bedroom"), and Will Smith ("Ali"), this race is between Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe. They are simply the two most complex performances of the bunch, and no doubt the most memorable.

While Crowe is brilliant as a troubled mathematical genius in "A Beautiful Mind," he must have skipped the chapter in the textbook that refers to how bullying tactics may not add up with the academy: Great performance or not, his tough-guy tirade against a British television producer after the U.K. version of the Oscars will hurt his chances.

Washington, on the other hand, knows how to control his temper, and channels it through his characters on the set. As a result, he seethes with dizzying intensity as a corrupt cop in "Training Day."

Who Will Win: Washington. Although he could have won this without the Crowe screw-up, Washington's lead actor Oscar (he already has a supporting actor statuette) will validate his storied career as a leading man in Hollywood. His only roadblocks are Crowe's wins with the Screen Actors Guild and the British Academy of Film and Television, which like the academy are voted on by peers. But how much will his friends put up with?

Best Actress: Like the supporting actor category, this appears to be a three-way race. Spacek has grabbed nearly every critic award out there to date, but again, the critics don't vote on the Oscars. True, she's so damned solid in "In the Bedroom," it's like she's not even acting. Personally, I'm past the wonder of her talents. Could the academy be, too?

Nicole Kidman ("Moulin Rouge") and Halle Berry ("Monster's Ball"), on the other hand, have shown career growth with their roles. They both risked looking foolish, and won the roll of the dice with some gutsy performances.

As for Judi Dench ("Iris"), it may be too soon for her to be a repeat winner (she won the supporting actress Oscar for 1999's "Shakespeare in Love"), and as for Renee Zellweger, her chances are slim to none with a comedy performance for an academy that loves drama.

Who Will Win: Berry. The only way it could fall to Spacek would be as an honor for career achievement. If the award is truly is about the role (like the nomination clearly implies), then Berry's performance is clearly the better of the two, at least according to the Screen Actors Guild, and I concur.

Best Picture: This is a tough call. "Moulin Rouge" (nominated for 8 Oscars) won the Producers Guild of America award for best picture, which would seemingly give it an edge since it's a peer vote. However, the fact that its main two competitors "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring" and "A Beautiful Mind" both received a gaggle of nominations (13 and 8, respectively), it's obvious that there is something special about them.

As for "Gosford Park," it may not be taken as seriously since the film has comedic elements (and again, the academy favors drama), and it also may suffer from the foremention Altman factor; "In the Bedroom," on the other hand, is all about drama, but it's surprisingly conventional (and not as art-house), the type of film the academy usually doesn't pay attention to.

Traditionally, the best picture and director Oscars go hand-in-hand. But the academy has been a bit more choosy in the past few years, splitting the awards between the likes of "Shakespeare in Love" (picture) and "Saving Private Ryan" (director) in 1999, and "Gladiator" (picture) and "Traffic" (director) last year. Can you sense a trend coming on?

What Will Win: "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring." The academy traditionally favors epics, and this film is an epic in the grandest sense of the word. Since Howard will be rewarded with the director Oscar, this will be the academy's way of rewarding Jackson for an incredible cinematic achievement, as one of the producers of the film.

And while "Rings" won't be the one film to rule them all in terms of a sweep come Sunday night, but it will take home the most Oscars. My prediction is that it will win in eight of its 13 nominated categories.