Dec. 25: Crunch Time
Yes, the confusion, disappointments and surprises of another fantasy football season are finally about to end, and since this is the week that many fantasy leagues hold their league's championship, the end is near for many of us. And while those who play in leagues that play all 17 weeks of the season have one more week, this is also obviously a critical week to those folks as well. The bottom line is that another exciting fantasy season is about to end, and the personnel decisions you make this week (and next week, if applicable) could very well mean the difference between fantasy success and failure.
With that in mind, here's one guy's look at the fantasy prospects for this weekend:
Washington at San Francisco Everyone loves a sure-thing player they can stick into their lineup without reservation, and in that regard there are no more sure things than wideouts who have the good fortune to match up against the ridiculously bad San Fran defensive backs. Michael Westbrook and Albert Connell are sure-thing starters in every league in America, because both are virtually certain of grabbing eight balls for 100 yards and a score. The likely loss of Stephen Davis makes Skip Hicks a legitimate starter in most leagues, as he will probably get 25 carries for 90 yards and a score. Brian Mitchell is a concern for Hicks's owners, because Mitchell may get the goal line work, but Hicks is still a legitimate starter. Obviously you start Brad Johnson if you have him, and Brett Conway is also a great start, as always. Charlie Garner should also prosper against the soft Washington defense, though that motley crew has improved in the last few weeks. No other Niner is dependable enough to be given a start.
Indianapolis at Cleveland This is the game that Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison and Edgerrin James have had circled on their calendars for months, and all three could have huge days. Obviously you start them if you've got them, and Mike Vanderjagt is also a sure-thing starter. Marcus Pollard is also worth a shot, but the pesky presence of Ken Dilger makes him a gamble. For Cleveland, the crushing loss of Tim Couch means that there isn't a single Brown who should be on a fantasy starting roster in week 16.
Kansas City at Seattle In an absolutely pivotal game for both teams, the charging Chiefs come into Seattle hoping to solidify their hold on the AFC West title, while Seattle tries to stem the bleeding from their four-game losing streak that has reduced them from a sure-thing division winner into a team that will be scrambling even for a wildcard spot. I think Jon Kitna is a very solid start in this game, and he'll finally start hooking up with Joey Galloway. Ricky Watters seems to have cooled off a bit after his torrid mid-season run, but he's too good to bench unless your options are Eddie George and Fred Taylor. For Kansas City, Derrek Alexander is obviously very talented, but he is just too streaky and unpredictable to start this week unless you are desperate. A better bet is that Bam Morris will cross the stripe once or twice.
Minnesota at Giants Cris Carter has practiced twice this week, meaning he'll probably be good to go on Sunday. I'd start him if I had him, and obviously you start Randy Moss and Jeff George if you have them. I'm also high on Leroy Hoard, who could see lots of work if the weather turns nasty. As for New York, Joe Montgomery and Amani Toomer make decent plug-in players this week, as the Minnesota defense is embarrassingly soft.
Buffalo at New England As bad as New England has been, you still can't count them out as a source of fantasy points. Terry Glenn, Drew Bledsoe and Terry Allen all have the potential to go off at any time, but the problem is that they've done it so inconsistently this year that you just can't depend on them. I'd start those three if I was hurting at a particular spot, but you obviously don't want to depend on them if you have an option. As for Buffalo, Jonathon Linton could do well, especially since Antowain Smith will again be a nonfactor, and because nasty weather could force Buffalo to focus on their ground game. Doug Flutie is a borderline starter, while Eric Moulds remains an every-game starter.
Denver at Detroit The Lions desperately need this game to stay in the NFC wildcard hunt, while Denver is playing fairly inspired ball as a spoiler. Olandis Gary is an every-week starter, and Byron Chamberlain is also a legitimate starter. But Ed McCaffrey and Rod Smith, while talented, just haven't been consistent enough this year to be relied on. I'd start either if my options were Tony Martin and Sean Dawkins, but I'd rather play either of Detroit's two main receivers, Johnnie Morton and Germane Crowell. I think Crowell will be good for 100 and a score, while Morton should end up with about 80 yards and a score of his own. Herman Moore will remain a stiff. This should be a pretty high scoring affair played on artificial turf in a dome, so you may very well have some viable fantasy options from this game.
Chicago at St. Louis The question weighing heavy in many minds is whether Dick Vermeil will bench Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk and Isaac Bruce now that St. Louis has clinched home field throughout the playoffs. I say no. Vermeil witnessed what happened to Denver in 1996, when the rested (and rusty) Broncos lost to Jacksonville in their first playoff game, and he's not going to repeat the mistake. Faulk and Bruce have been quiet lately in the scoring department, but I see them going off in this game, and you obviously have to start them if you've got them. As for Chicago, Marcus Robinson made a big return after an inexplicable slump, and he is a borderline starter in most leagues, especially since Cade McNown (the starter the rest of the season) seems to like throwing to him. Curtis Enis will have a tough game this week, and really isn't starting material.
Green Bay at Tampa Bay Obviously this is a huge game for both teams, as the Bucs try to retain their grasp on the Central title and show that last week's miserable game against Oakland was an aberration, while the Packers desperately need this game to retain any hope at a wildcard spot. Mike Alstott is the only Buccaneer I'd start, because Tampa will have Shaun King play it close to the vest. Dorsey Levens ran well against Minnesota, and based on the weaknesses exposed in the Oakland game, he could approach 100 yards. Brett Favre has been one of the biggest disappointments in all of fantasy football this year, as his 19 scores are a tragic joke to anyone who took him this year. I think Tampa will resume their dominating defensive ways, and more than one score from Favre (probably going to Antonio Freeman) is too much to expect.
Oakland at San Diego No Charger is worth a start. For Oakland, you've got to love Tyrone Wheatley, who was a terrific pickup for the Raiders. Rich Gannon has also been playing very well lately, with Tim Brown and Rickey Dudley being the primary beneficiaries. I'd start Raiders if I had them.
Cincinnati at Baltimore In a sure sign that the apocalypse is upon us, this game, which looked so nauseating at the beginning of the year, is now arguably the fantasy game of the week. Both of these teams have absolutely been going off lately, as Corey Dillon, Darnay Scott, Carl Pickens, Quadry Ismail and Tony Banks have all been huge of late. I'd start all five of those guys in this potential shootout, with weather being my only significant concern.
Carolina at Pittsburgh No quarterback is hotter right now than Steve Beuerlein, with Patrick Jeffers being the guy most helped by this development. The Steelers have been soft against the pass the past few weeks, so I'd be sure to start both Jeffers and Muhsin Muhammad if I had them. (In fact, last week I started both guys in my own league because they were playing the sickly Niners' pass defense, even though I also have Germane Crowell and Albert Connell, and they paid off with four scores and close to 300 receiving yards.) It's always risky to play two wideouts from the same team, because you're up the river if the team lays a goose egg, and because chance of both players really going off is very slim, where you may luck out if you have two stars from two different teams. No Steeler is worth a start.
Arizona at Atlanta The Falcons' drubbing by San Francisco was proof of how bad they can be when they are missing Chris Chandler, which is very bad indeed. And regardless of whether Chandler can play or not (he's listed as questionable), the team is just too erratic to count on any Falcon for your fantasy team. As for Arizona, Frank Sanders and Mario Bates make decent plug-in guys if your options are low, but neither exactly make me tremble with excitement.
Good luck to all!
By Jon Wagner, Contributing Editor For Fantasy Football Weekly
