Analyzing A-Rod, Ramirez, Other Signings

It's The End Of the World As We Know It, And I Feel Fine

Ed Dykhuizen, Staff Writer

Finally! Lots of real baseball news occurred recently, in the form of a passel of signings. So now I can get into analysis of the deals already gone down. For a baseball dork like me, this is exciting.

Alex Rodriguez to the Rangers: Wow. Mark this signing down as Exhibit number 2,534 in favor of revenue sharing.

I'm not a huge fan of free-agent signings in general. I think that typically, because of the bidding war that always ensues, the players end up not being worth the money.

And I'm not talking in terms of the crochety-old-man argument (i.e., "Man! No one who plays a game should be paid that much! In my day, players were oppressed indentured servants with no rights whatsoever, and we liked it!"). I'm talking in terms of a more logical cost-benefit analysis -- for the $10 million a year that the Mets are going to pay Kevin Appier for a couple of solid but unspectacular seasons, they could develop a whole host of minor leaguers and most assuredly get comparable production and then some. Role players and solid regulars can be found anywhere and developed easily, and therefore don't deserve astronomical salaries.

But it gets more complicated when we're talking about a superstar. No team ever wins anything without a few players that are the best in their league. With a few exceptions, superstars shouldn't get traded because you simply can't get equal value in return. And no amount of money pumped into player development can make producing a superstar a good bet.

So while $21 million a year makes me feel a little faint, it's sadly, apparently, the only way to get a player of Rodriguez' caliber besides getting extremely lucky. Rodriguez, quite simply, is on track to being one of the 10 or 15 greatest players in history. I have little doubt that he'll play wonderfully for Texas and represent a huge upgrade. Having him at shortstop for the next 10 years -- it's gotta be a dream come true for Rangers fans.

Well, that is, only if you leave out the franchise-crippling contract that comes with him. This signing pretty much dooms the Rangers from the chance to build a dynasty. It all looks very short-term, and that's a recipe for becoming the Florida Marlins. As important as it is to have a player like Rodriguez, still, I'll bet dollars to donuts that before you know it, the Rangers will be in financial trouble and collapsing, a la the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Did you hear about this? The Diamondbacks have been ridiculously free spenders since joining the league. They snagged a superstar who was worth every penny in Randy Johnson. And with every subsequent over-valued acquisition, from Jay Bell to Luis Gonzalez to Steve Finley, they saw mediocre regulars sign a deal with the devil and channel the ghost of Babe Ruth.

It got them a 100-win season and terrific attendance figures. But because of their preposterously unrealistic expectations, it wasn't enough, and recently they were forced to ask Major League Baseball for a loan. Meanwhile their offense, which was the epitome of a short-term plan, is bad and is only getting worse. Two years after a division title and they're collapsing, Randy Johnson or no Randy Johnson.

I foresee the same for the Rangers. I can't see them falling ass-backwards into a set of career years the way the D-backs did. But then, they don't need to, armed as they are with legitimately great players like Ivan Rodriguez and Rafael Palmeiro.

So their run might last longer than the Diamondbacks', but still, it's too short-sighted to last long. Odds are that the Rangers will have a few good seasons, but meanwhile won't have the money in their budget to make improvements as needed. See, baseball isn't like any other sport -- a team could have the best player in the league and still finish last. In baseball, more than any sport, you can't invest everything in one player. No matter what A-Rod does, he can only come to bat four or five times a day.

And as if the Rangers are trying to speed up the process of inevitable deterioration, they're currently stockpiling players whose skills have already eroded. When you're already relying on silly moves like signing a 39-year-old Andres Galarraga and a hopelessly gimpy Ken Caminiti to plug holes, you're in trouble.

And on a personal note, I would enjoy seeing A-Rod get locked into a contract with a failing team. He's a wonderful player, but can you comprehend the hubris that it takes to demand that a team (Seattle) move their fences in, just for your stats? And then to pretend that it would be "for the good of the team," when a dead slug could recognize how the Mariners' pitching and team improved last year with their relatively normal-sized park?

And then there's the arrogance of his contract demands on the Mets (my favorite: a guarantee that no other New York sports personality will get more promotion space) and the contract demands that were met by the apparently self-respect-deficient Rangers. It all goes beyond arrogance, it reaches into the realm of the farcical.

One of the most distasteful things in sports is seeing a player who thinks his own welfare and accomplishments are more important than that of the team. Players need many rights to protect themselves from greedy owners, but in the end, teams should be in charge, because it's a team sport and a team effort. I applaud the Mariners and Mets for scoffing at Rodriguez, and hope, just for the sake of cosmic justice, that the Rangers and Rodriguez collapse together.

Manny Ramirez to the Red Sox: A similar story, except somehow, I'm more optimistic about the Red Sox. Unlike the Rangers, they are one of the few organizations that seem to have a bottomless supply of cash. And they didn't accompany their gigantic signing of a future first-ballot Hall of Famer with the acquisitions of a few expensive, washed-up former stars.

Still, you can color me skeptical. Even armed as the Sox are with preposterously high ticket prices, a new stadium on the way, and a terrific TV contract, $160 million for eight years is a heckuva lot. It could easily prevent the Red Sox from making improvements elsewhere, improvements which are sorely needed.

Eventually, they could well be the first team to have three super-duper-stars (Ramirez, Nomar Garciaparra and Pedro Martinez) and a losing record. Again, as great as Garciaparra, Ramirez and Carl Everett are, the other six lineup spots will be filled by below-average regulars. Already they have Rico Brogna, Mike Lansing, Dante Bichette, Troy O'Leary, Jose Offerman -- that's way too many overpriced has-beens for one club.

And then there's the pitching, which includes the greatest pitcher since Walter Johnson and a whole lot of dead wood. All these concerns aside, the Sox could still win 88 games next year. Which considering the Yankees' age, could be enough to take the division.

Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle to the Rockies: How about them Rockies, huh? In case you missed it, the wackiest team in the West already signed two top-flight starters, Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle. No doubt they're thinking that they need to strike while the iron is hot, after a moderately successful 82-80 campaign in 2000.

On the surface, it certainly seems necessary. The Rockies had the second-worst ERA in the NL, at 5.26 (Chicago was about even, only Houston was worse).

But the real problem with the Rockies is as it has always been, that they live in a bizarro alternate universe known as Coors Field. Coors, because of its lofty elevation, has preposterous effects on statistics, turning even the usually reliable numbers into bald-faced lies. The truth of the matter is that when you normalize the statistics to take into account the bizarre effects Coors Field has on baseball, the Rockies actually had a good pitching staff last year.

According to the lover-ly reference site baseball-reference.com, the ERA of the entire NL was 4.63. Obviously, 5.26 is much worse than 4.63, so it looks as though The Rockies weren't too good . . .

But hold the phone . . . through a complicated procedure, baseball-reference.com managed to figure out what the league's ERA would've been if everyone played in Coors-like parks. It would've been 5.94. When 5.94 constitutes an average performance, 5.26 suddenly doesn't look so bad.

The conversions for park effect mean that Rockies starter Brian Bohanon (12-10, 4.68) had a better ERA, in real terms, than Cy Young contenders Darryl Kile (20-9, 3.91), David Wells (20-8, 4.11) and Tim Hudson (20-6, 4.14). Pedro Astacio turned in another solid performance (12-9, 5.27) and Julian Tavarez (11-5, 4.43) looked very capable when thrown into a starting role. Even Masato Yoshii (6-15, 5.86) was better than the average pitcher who would have to pitch half his games in Coors.

Since the rest was pretty bad, the Rockies' starting pitching in toto was fair-to-middlin'. It was the relief corps that was gangbusters. With Jose Jimenez (3.18), Mike Myers (1.99) and Gabe White (2.17) being the main three go-to guys, the Rockies basically have the most impressive bullpen trio in the majors. I'm baffled as to how this could have happened.

Anyway, the point is that the additions of Hampton and Neagle could well help the Rockies, but not as much as you might think. They're not in need that badly of pitching, and the odds are that both of them will turn in Brain Bohanon-type seasons.

Digression: But Can The Rockies Ever Win?

Well, can they? I doubt it.

Basically, the Rockies will never win unless they learn to adapt their thinking to the effects of their park. In their eight-year history, the Rocks have never developed a successful young pitcher. It's not impossible to have good pitching there, but the cards are stacked against them.

Two kinds of pitchers that are not likely to be successful in Coors are fly-ball pitchers and curveball specialists. As for fly-ball pitchers, it's pretty obvious -- when most anything hit in the air goes out, a pitcher who lives by the warning track will die by the warning track.

As for curveball specialists, this is still basically a theory, by way of explanation of why Darryl Kile and his big curve had such trouble: Supposedly, the thin air that makes the ball go faster also makes a curveball's break unpredictable. I don't know if I totally buy it, but heck, Darryl Kile should know better than I.

So right there the Rockies have a few disadvantages compared to most teams -- when there are two types of pitchers you have to stay away from, it narrows your field to choose from and gives everyone without similar concerns an unfair advantage. In the cutthroat world of major league baseball, this can be enough of an edge to keep a team down.

But the real tragedy of the Rockies is that I'm not sure that management or players are taking the distorting effects on statistics into account when they evaluate themselves. Yoshii, who was and is a promising young pitcher, has no doubt had his soul crushed by all those home runs, and is not going to get much of a chance in an overcrowded 2001 staff.

You see, pitching is an especially delicate business. Look at the career record of any great starter, from Randy Johnson to Pedro Martinez -- it always takes several years of work, subtle changes and trial and error to mold yourself into a good major league pitcher. Hitters typically have to go through a much shorter period of adjustment.

For a young Rockies pitcher, those years are spent watching easy fly balls loft over the fence and pop-ups fall into a cavernous outfield. This results in gaudy ERAs and ugly stat lines, even when you've got your best stuff popping. Inevitably, this leads to futile tinkering with mechanics, delivery, and whatnot. I can envision poor Yoshii's game being warped beyond recognition.

If only the Rockies had the smarts to tell these kids not to panic. Everyone must recognize that the standards are different in Colorado. If you last six innings and give up five runs in Coors, you should be proud, kid, you're doing it right. Don't go a-changing.

Mike Mussina to the Yankees: Sigh.

Any comments? Questions? Write me.

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