Oscar Predictions: It's Just A Show, Folks
If Show Goes On, It Will Be 'Chicago's' Night
POSTED: 9:29 a.m. EST March 21, 2003
Let's be honest, in light of the war with Iraq, the world's events have put into perspective that the Oscars really are not that important this year. Sure, millions of dollars are at stake with advertising commitments during the telecast, and the actors and filmmakers involved are sure to benefit afterward with the mantle of "Oscar winner" or "Oscar nominee" forever attached to their names when negotiating future contracts.
But in the end, to Joe Moviegoer, the Academy Awards should just be seen -- if they are televised at all -- as a brief diversion from the war. In other words, the Oscars this year should be treated just as the medium that makes them possible -- movies -- and should be viewed as an escape from everyday life. And despite the fact that the Oscars are broadcast worldwide, neither movies -- or in this case, award shows that honor movies -- are a life or death worldwide event, and shouldn't demand our attention as such.
Of course, things could get interesting if actors or filmmakers -- whatever their viewpoints are about the war -- turn the show into a political rally. If that happens, there's no question it will sour viewers and seriously damage the reputation of the annual celebration.
So, if you choose to tune in to the diversion of the Academy Awards this weekend, here's my annual @ The Movies Oscar predictions. Whether you take the predictions seriously or take them with a grain of salt, remember this: it's just showbiz, folks!
Best Supporting Actress Analysis: Some may think that "Chicago's" Catherine Zeta-Jones has the edge on this category with her Screen Actors Guild victory in the same category. Logic would say she's right because SAG is a fairly accurate predictor of the awards since the guild and Academy are made up of the same voters.
But thanks to a mistake by a studio staffer, Meryl Streep's name was submitted for "Adaptation" in the lead actress category, effectively competing against herself for her lead role in "The Hours" for a nomination. The end result was that she likely canceled herself out with voters, and was shut out of the SAG awards in both lead and supporting categories.
Prediction: It will be Streep all the way. She holds the record for most nominations with 13, but with only two wins. The Academy can't deny her a third win again for the sake of spreading the wealth to somebody else -- her performance in "Adaptation" was just too strong.
Best Supporting Actor Analysis: Here begins the first of many two-person races in the major categories - the tightest. It appeared that "Adaptation's" Chris Cooper was steamrolling his way to this award with a bevy of critics awards in December and January, but the tide began to turn Christopher Walken's way for "Catch Me if You Can" with wins from the British Film and Television Academy and Screen Actors Guild.
Prediction: Walken will win, and for two good reasons. First, the critics who voted Cooper his awards don't vote on the Oscars, it's many of the same people who voted Walken his BAFTA and SAG awards. Second, he's a sentimental favorite, turning in several memorable roles since he won the Best Supporting Actor Oscar for "The Deer Hunter" in 1979.
Since upsets usually come in the supporting actress or actor categories, "Chicago's" John C. Reilly is the dark horse here, considering he turned in memorable performances in three of the five Best Picture nominees. He's a journeyman actor who deserves the recognition.
Best Actress Analysis: At first I thought this was a two-person race between "The Hours" star Nicole Kidman and "Far From Heaven's" Julianne Moore - the latter of which was the darling of several critics awards.
But with the momentum of "Chicago" during this last half of the awards season, greater recognition has come the way of Renee Zellweger, who scored a major victory with the SAG award for Best Actress.
Prediction: The race is now tight between Kidman, who won the BAFTA Best Actress award and Zellweger, and it's the song and dance woman who flexed her creative muscles with an utterly charming performance in "Chicago" who will take home the statuette.
Best Actor Analysis: Another two-way race, this time between Daniel Day-Lewis for "Gangs of New York" and Jack Nicholson for "About Schmidt." The critics were split between the two for many of their awards, and Day-Lewis grabbed the BAFTA and SAG awards.
Prediction: Day-Lewis gives the best performance of the year of any actor, hands down, and to give the Oscar to anybody else would be a travesty.
Also working against Nicholson is the fact that he's already won three Oscars, and the Academy is stingy handing out multiple statuettes to actors. If he does get it, he'll tie Katherine Hepburn, the only actor to win four Oscars. True, Day-Lewis won before, too, with "My Left Foot," and Sunday will be his day again.
Best Director Analysis: Rob Marshall is the favorite here since he won the Directors Guild of America award, perhaps the most accurate barometer of who will go on to win the Oscar. Some people have suggested that voters should overlook the fact that BAFTA winner Roman Polanski fled the country to avoid sentencing for the statutory rape of a 13-year-old girl in 1978, and be recognized for "The Pianist" -- going so far as to let him come back to the United States from France without prosecution. That's ridiculous.
The only true competition he has is Martin Scorsese, who not only deserves to win for a phenomenal achievement in "Gangs of New York," but for his complete body of work.
Prediction: Marshall has awards season momentum on his side with the film winning the highest honors from the Screen Actors Guild and the Producer Guild of America. But given the fact that all but five DGA winners have gone on to win the Oscar since 1949, this award is a virtual lock for Marshall. Don't be surprised or upset if Scorsese wins, but my gut says the Academy will go with Marshall.
Best Picture Analysis: "Chicago" leads with the most nominations (13) and that's usually a good indication that many of the honors will fall its way. "Gangs of New York" has 10 nominations, but apart from Day-Lewis and Scorsese, its chances for major awards appear slim given awards season voting trends.
"The Pianist" won the BAFTA for Best Picture, which gives the film a glimmer of hope, but the Polanski factor will hurt its chances. "The Hours" was hailed by many critics and has certainly been recognized for its acting, but an upset is unlikely.
Finally, fans of "The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers" should painfully give up any hope of a win this year. The first film in the series lost out on all the major awards with 13 nominations last year, and was only recognized with six nods this year, which didn't include Jackson.
Prediction: This is the easiest one to make. Voters will love the glitz, glamour and "All That Jazz" of "Chicago." It's a dazzling spectacle, and certainly deserves to win.
Last Year's Picks
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Connolly, "A Beautiful Mind" (Winner: Connolly)
Best Supporting Actor: Ian McKellen, "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring" (Winner: Jim Broadbent, "Iris")
Best Actress: Halle Berry, "Monster's Ball" (Winner: Berry)
Best Actor: Denzel Washington, "Training Day" (Winner: Washington)
Best Director: Ron Howard, "A Beautiful Mind" (Winner: Howard)
Best Picture: "Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring" (Winner: "A Beautiful Mind")
But in the end, to Joe Moviegoer, the Academy Awards should just be seen -- if they are televised at all -- as a brief diversion from the war. In other words, the Oscars this year should be treated just as the medium that makes them possible -- movies -- and should be viewed as an escape from everyday life. And despite the fact that the Oscars are broadcast worldwide, neither movies -- or in this case, award shows that honor movies -- are a life or death worldwide event, and shouldn't demand our attention as such.
Of course, things could get interesting if actors or filmmakers -- whatever their viewpoints are about the war -- turn the show into a political rally. If that happens, there's no question it will sour viewers and seriously damage the reputation of the annual celebration.
So, if you choose to tune in to the diversion of the Academy Awards this weekend, here's my annual @ The Movies Oscar predictions. Whether you take the predictions seriously or take them with a grain of salt, remember this: it's just showbiz, folks!
Best Supporting Actress Analysis: Some may think that "Chicago's" Catherine Zeta-Jones has the edge on this category with her Screen Actors Guild victory in the same category. Logic would say she's right because SAG is a fairly accurate predictor of the awards since the guild and Academy are made up of the same voters.
But thanks to a mistake by a studio staffer, Meryl Streep's name was submitted for "Adaptation" in the lead actress category, effectively competing against herself for her lead role in "The Hours" for a nomination. The end result was that she likely canceled herself out with voters, and was shut out of the SAG awards in both lead and supporting categories.
Prediction: It will be Streep all the way. She holds the record for most nominations with 13, but with only two wins. The Academy can't deny her a third win again for the sake of spreading the wealth to somebody else -- her performance in "Adaptation" was just too strong.
Best Supporting Actor Analysis: Here begins the first of many two-person races in the major categories - the tightest. It appeared that "Adaptation's" Chris Cooper was steamrolling his way to this award with a bevy of critics awards in December and January, but the tide began to turn Christopher Walken's way for "Catch Me if You Can" with wins from the British Film and Television Academy and Screen Actors Guild.
Prediction: Walken will win, and for two good reasons. First, the critics who voted Cooper his awards don't vote on the Oscars, it's many of the same people who voted Walken his BAFTA and SAG awards. Second, he's a sentimental favorite, turning in several memorable roles since he won the Best Supporting Actor Oscar for "The Deer Hunter" in 1979.
Since upsets usually come in the supporting actress or actor categories, "Chicago's" John C. Reilly is the dark horse here, considering he turned in memorable performances in three of the five Best Picture nominees. He's a journeyman actor who deserves the recognition.
Best Actress Analysis: At first I thought this was a two-person race between "The Hours" star Nicole Kidman and "Far From Heaven's" Julianne Moore - the latter of which was the darling of several critics awards.
But with the momentum of "Chicago" during this last half of the awards season, greater recognition has come the way of Renee Zellweger, who scored a major victory with the SAG award for Best Actress.
Prediction: The race is now tight between Kidman, who won the BAFTA Best Actress award and Zellweger, and it's the song and dance woman who flexed her creative muscles with an utterly charming performance in "Chicago" who will take home the statuette.
Best Actor Analysis: Another two-way race, this time between Daniel Day-Lewis for "Gangs of New York" and Jack Nicholson for "About Schmidt." The critics were split between the two for many of their awards, and Day-Lewis grabbed the BAFTA and SAG awards.
Prediction: Day-Lewis gives the best performance of the year of any actor, hands down, and to give the Oscar to anybody else would be a travesty.
Also working against Nicholson is the fact that he's already won three Oscars, and the Academy is stingy handing out multiple statuettes to actors. If he does get it, he'll tie Katherine Hepburn, the only actor to win four Oscars. True, Day-Lewis won before, too, with "My Left Foot," and Sunday will be his day again.
Best Director Analysis: Rob Marshall is the favorite here since he won the Directors Guild of America award, perhaps the most accurate barometer of who will go on to win the Oscar. Some people have suggested that voters should overlook the fact that BAFTA winner Roman Polanski fled the country to avoid sentencing for the statutory rape of a 13-year-old girl in 1978, and be recognized for "The Pianist" -- going so far as to let him come back to the United States from France without prosecution. That's ridiculous.
The only true competition he has is Martin Scorsese, who not only deserves to win for a phenomenal achievement in "Gangs of New York," but for his complete body of work.
Prediction: Marshall has awards season momentum on his side with the film winning the highest honors from the Screen Actors Guild and the Producer Guild of America. But given the fact that all but five DGA winners have gone on to win the Oscar since 1949, this award is a virtual lock for Marshall. Don't be surprised or upset if Scorsese wins, but my gut says the Academy will go with Marshall.
Best Picture Analysis: "Chicago" leads with the most nominations (13) and that's usually a good indication that many of the honors will fall its way. "Gangs of New York" has 10 nominations, but apart from Day-Lewis and Scorsese, its chances for major awards appear slim given awards season voting trends.
"The Pianist" won the BAFTA for Best Picture, which gives the film a glimmer of hope, but the Polanski factor will hurt its chances. "The Hours" was hailed by many critics and has certainly been recognized for its acting, but an upset is unlikely.
Finally, fans of "The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers" should painfully give up any hope of a win this year. The first film in the series lost out on all the major awards with 13 nominations last year, and was only recognized with six nods this year, which didn't include Jackson.
Prediction: This is the easiest one to make. Voters will love the glitz, glamour and "All That Jazz" of "Chicago." It's a dazzling spectacle, and certainly deserves to win.
Last Year's Picks
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Connolly, "A Beautiful Mind" (Winner: Connolly)
Best Supporting Actor: Ian McKellen, "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring" (Winner: Jim Broadbent, "Iris")
Best Actress: Halle Berry, "Monster's Ball" (Winner: Berry)
Best Actor: Denzel Washington, "Training Day" (Winner: Washington)
Best Director: Ron Howard, "A Beautiful Mind" (Winner: Howard)
Best Picture: "Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring" (Winner: "A Beautiful Mind")Copyright 2003 by Lifewhile.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
