What Kind Of Bounce For Bush?

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The capture of Saddam Hussein has boosted President Bush's job-approval ratings once again. But it still hasn't convinced most Americans that the incumbent deserves a second term.

A Dec. 15-17 poll by Zogby International -- taken after Saddam was rooted out of his "spider hole" by U.S. soldiers -- found that 45% of Americans thought Bush deserved reelection, while 47% still thought it was time for somebody new. That was almost unchanged from a Zogby survey two weeks earlier, where Bush was on the short end of a 44% to 46% result in a matchup against a generic Democratic opponent.

The President's standing has improved slightly since September, when only 40% said he merited a second term, but that appears to be due more to the strengthening national economy than anything else.

One development that could benefit Bush over the long run: The shearing of Saddam has made Americans more optimistic about the prospects for political stability in Iraq and speedier U.S. troop withdrawal. An American Research Group survey, along with recent Gallup and CBS/New York Times polls, places the President's favorable ratings in the neighborhood of 58% -- his best since summertime.

"POGO STICK"? And when ARG puts a face on his opponent, namely, Democratic front-runner Howard Dean, a leading Iraq critic, Bush's lead became 60% to 37% two days after Saddam's capture, compared with 52% to 44% before.

Democrats are counting on the Saddam surge to be short-lived. Pollster Peter Hart describes the spike in the President's popularity as "a pogo stick bounce" that will "come down pretty rapidly." Former Clinton pollster Stanley B. Greenberg predicts a six-week boost for Bush.

We'll soon know whether that's sage analysis or wishful thinking. Stabilizing Iraq remains a treacherous task, and Americans could blame the President if, heaven forbid, another attack hits American shores. But remember the old axiom: Nothing succeeds like success. If Iraq stabilizes, guerrilla attacks dwindle, U.S. withdrawals begin, and international involvement increases, the President could well turn Iraq from a net negative to a political plus by next November. And if Osama gets bagged and the economy continues to improve, well...

Richard S. Dunham





Rudy Wants to Pump You Up

Not long ago, political pundits gushed about the emergence of ex-New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani as a national political figure. Some suggested that the tough-talking former prosecutor who rallied New Yorkers after September 11 might even be Presidential timber. His endorsements of GOP congressional candidates in 2002 boosted several to victories.

Of course with George W. Bush seeking a second term next year, Giuliani's prospects are limited for now. Still, his latest projects can only make you wonder which stage -- political or theatrical -- Rudy really wants to play on. First, his consulting firm won a multimillion dollar contract to teach the Mexico City police department how to fight crime. Now, he's teaming up with Zig Ziglar, the 77-year-old solon of salesmanship and heir to Dale Carnegie's motivational techniques. Zig and Rudy will join actor Goldie Hawn and Rick Belluzzo, former president and chief operating officer of Microsoft (MSFT), on a 50-city cross-country tour next year to give "Get Motivated Seminars."

Zig promises a "one-day, power-packed, motivational business training extravaganza." He calls it "the dream team of expert trainers." Maybe Giuliani wants to make some money before he reenters the political arena, although at these prices, he may have a ways to go. "Not $49 per person, but per office," according to the e-faxed press release from Zig Zigler's Web site.

Then again, maybe Giuliani wants to raise his profile, although his book Leadership, published last year, is still ranked No. 792 on Amazon.com (as of Dec. 18). But this doesn't seem like the fastest route in the world to the national political stage.

Beth Belton





Free Trade Deals in Shackles

Free traders, you better sit down. If you thought 2003 was discouraging, 2004 isn't likely to get much better.

Ambitious attempts to fashion a global agreement collapsed in September, and Bush Administration plans for a hemispheric free trade zone stalled out in November. Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization handed Washington a string of expensive defeats throughout the year. And Bush has faced withering criticism and accusations of protectionism from fellow conservatives for trying to shelter the U.S. steel industry with tariffs declared illegal under international trading rules by the WTO.

No wonder Administration negotiators scrambled so hard to secure a preliminary agreement on Dec. 17 that would extend NAFTA-like free trade provisions to four nations in Central America -- Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador. (Costa Rica dropped out at the last minute.) Trouble is, this may be as far as the Central American Free Trade Agreement gets.

Next year is an election year, and CAFTA has lots of enemies on Capitol Hill. Congressional Democrats will team up with Southern Republicans from the old Textile Belt to try to scotch the deal. Plus, sugar-beet and sugar-cane farmers, labor unions, and environmental groups think such deals leave U.S. farmers and workers open to ruinous competition and roll back environmental protections. You likely won't hear Bush and his Democratic opponent talking up this deal on the stump in key swing states like Ohio, Michigan, or West Virginia.

After the loss of some 2.6 million manufacturing jobs over the past three years, and the outsourcing of thousands of service jobs to India and China, don't expect an election-year Congress to ratify any new free trade pacts.

Paul Magnusson





Way Down in Dixie

Louisiana Senator John Breaux's retirement makes a long shot even longer for Democratic hopes of winning back control of the Senate in 2004. The reason: Breaux's Dec. 15 announcement brings to five the number of Southern Democratic senators who won't seek reelection next year. That makes five out of five Southern Democratic senators up for reelection who'd rather quit than fight. President Bush is expected to sweep the region.

With Breaux out, Democrats won't be favored in any of these five races. And with Republicans holding a 51-48 lead in the Senate (with one Democrat-leaning Independent), the party can't afford much more bad news. Yes, Democrats have a decent shot at winning Republican seats in Illinois and Alaska -- and an outside chance of capturing Republican Arlen Specter's seat in Pennsylvania. But Dixie already looks like a lost cause, and that puts the Dems in a deep hole.

Breaux's seat may be the most competitive. Moderate-to-conservative Democrats still can win in Louisiana, unlike its neighboring states of Mississippi and Texas. And Bayou State Representative Chris John, a Breaux protege, would fit that profile well, should he choose to run. If he wins the Democratic Senate nomination, the still-popular Breaux could use his substantial political capital to help boost John to victory.

TUSSLE IN N.C. New Orleans-area Republican Congressman David Vitter, who's already in the race, will have strong Religious Right backing, but he's not a favorite of outgoing GOP Governor Mike Foster. Other possible candidates include Lousiana Democratic Attorney General Richard leyoub and ex-Bush Administration official Bobby Jindal, both losers in the '03 governor's race, and Democratic state Treasurer John Kennedy (no relation to the assassinated President).

The Democrats also have a fighting chance in North Carolina, where Charlotte investment banker Erskine Bowles, ex-White House Chief of Staff under Bill Clinton who lost his first Senate race to Elizabeth Dole in 2002, is heading for a new showdown with Republican Representative Richard Burr, a favorite of White House political guru Karl Rove. This contest between two savvy, probusiness candidates has the potential to be close. Republicans think they have a slight edge because Bush remains exceptionally popular in the Tar Heel State.

The race to replace retiring Florida Senator Bob Graham is a jumble -- what a surprise in the nation's favorite state of chaos! U.S. Housing & Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez recently quit his post to run for the Republican nomination. Yet, Governor Jeb Bush isn't clearing the deck for his brother's loyal Cabinet member to win the Senate nomination.

ALL IN VAIN? Martinez will have to run against former Representative Bill McCollum, who lost an uninspired Senate campaign in 2000, Florida House Speaker Johnnie Byrd, and conservative lawyer and Bill Clinton nemesis Larry Klayman, among others. Then there's former New Hampshire GOP Senator Bob Smith, who has retired to Sarasota and is talking about staging a comeback by running for the Sunshine State seat.

All the jockeying may be moot if Florida's ex-Secretary of State Katherine Harris jumps in. Early polling shows she would blow away the field if she decides to run, which she hasn't ruled out.

On the Democratic side, former state Education Commissioner Betty Castor appears the early favorite of party regulars, though Representative Peter Deutsch and Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas, want Graham's job, too. Anything could happen here, particularly if the polarizing and charismatic Harris takes center stage in another Florida political melodrama.

CLOSE TO IMPOSSIBLE. The two other races lean strongly Republican. In South Carolina, where veteran Democrat Ernest F. Hollings is retiring, Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum has a clear path to the Democratic nomination. But how much will it be worth in one of the most Republican states in the nation?

Perhaps that's why so many GOP powerhouses have jumped in already. They include Representative Jim DeMint; Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride; developer Thomas Ravenel, scion of a famous political family; and former South Carolina Attorney General Charlie Condon. Ex-Governor David Beasley is contemplating a comeback attempt, too. But unless the GOP nominee ends up damaged goods because of a bitter primary, it'll be hard for Tenenbaum to hold this seat.

If South Carolina is tough for the Dems, Georgia may be close to impossible. A parade of Peach State Democratic limelighters have declined to run, leaving the party without a prominent contender and far behind in the money chase as the election approaches. The Republican primary could decide the winner, and three formidable Senate wannabes are already in the race: moderate conservative Johnny Isakson, the congressman who replaced Newt Gingrich; conservative Representative Mac Collins; and former Godfathers Pizza CEO Herman Cain.

It's hard to see how the Dems hold the Georgia seat of putative Democrat Zell Miller, who just wrote a book blasting his party for failing to offer a palatable political message to Southern voters and thereby ceding the region to the Republicans. It's a sign of just how badly things are going for the donkey that once dominated Dixie.

Richard S. Dunham





Sharp-Tongued Sharpton

Although his chances of winning the Democratic Presidential nomination are next to nil, the Reverend Al Sharpton has shown he can zing with the best of them. Most Americans snoozed through the Democratic Presidential debates this year, but Sharpton's sly sound bites and barbed retorts on stage alongside the other eight Democratic candidates left audiences laughing -- and won him a guest-host slot recently on Saturday Night Live.

When he visited the BusinessWeek Washington bureau on Dec. 16, he trotted out a few new lines. On Vice-President Al Gore's surprise endorsement of Dean: "When you need a co-signer on a loan, doesn't that mean you have bad credit?" And as for the two white guys making their announcement in Harlem, Sharpton observed that Dean "comes from a state where 2% of the people are African Americans -- and 1% got lost headed to Canada."

Nonetheless, Sharpton said he would support Dean if the Vermont governor were to win the nomination. Watch for a BusinessWeek Online Video Views segment with Sharpton coming soon.

Doug Harbrecht