Debunking A Few NFL Myths

When you watch football this weekend, you are going to hear TV's talking heads try to fill your brain with a number of myths about the NFL. These misconceptions are generally the result of laziness, of commentators who spend more time with their hair stylists and wardrobe consultants than with their stats and record books.

Because all you really need to do is take a look at the data to see what's true and what's hype.

Myth: In head-to-head matchups, the more experienced coach has the advantage.

Let's take a look at the playoffs so far this year:

AFC Playoffs
Dolphins beat Colts -- Dave Wannstedt runs his playoff coaching mark to 2-1, while Jim Mora drops to 0-6.
Ravens beat Broncos -- Brian Billick wins in his first NFL playoff game, beating Mike Shanahan, he of the two Super Bowl rings.
Raiders beat Dolphins -- Jon Gruden wins in his first NFL playoff game; Wannstedt takes it on the chin and drops to 1-2.
Ravens beat Titans -- Billick stays perfect, while Jeff Fisher (who won his first three playoff games last year, all against more experienced coaches, before losing the Super Bowl) drops to 3-2 lifetime.

NFC Playoffs
Saints beat Rams -- Jim Haslett, coaching in his first NFL playoff game, defeats Mike Martz, who was also making his playoff debut as a head coach. But Martz was basically Dick Vermeil's assistant head coach in last year's Super Bowl season for the Rams.
Eagles beat Buccaneers -- Andy Reid, making his NFL playoff debut as a head coach, tops Tony Dungy, who was coaching in his fifth playoff game with the Bucs in four years (2-3 overall).
Vikings beat Saints -- Dennis Green, the current dean of NFL coaches, beats Haslett.
Giants beat Eagles -- Jim Fassel, 0-1 in his only playoff season, knocks off Reid.

So in review, of the playoff games thus far, the more experienced coach has one exactly one game, while the less experienced coaches have gone 5-1 with two pushes (Haslett-Martz and Fassel-Reid).

Myth: In head-to-head matchups, the more experienced quarterback has the advantage.

Again, taking a look at the games above:
Trent Dilfer over Gus Frerotte -- Dilfer 1-1 with Tampa in '97 vs. Frerotte 0-1 last year with Detroit. Slight experience advantage to Dilfer.
Jay Fiedler over Peyton Manning -- Score one for the wet-behind-the-jug-ears Fiedler in his first playoff start.
Dilfer over Steve McNair -- McNair started all four Titans playoff games last year. Now he's 3-2, while Dilfer is 3-1.
Rich Gannon over Fiedler -- Gannon, the 13-year veteran, made his first NFL playoff start against Fiedler, who at least had one game under his belt.
Aaron Brooks over Kurt Warner -- Last year's Super Bowl MVP couldn't get it done vs. a guy who was making his first playoff start.
Donovan McNabb over Shaun King -- Both members of last year's rookie class, King at least started a pair of playoff games, including the NFC Championship. McNabb was getting his first playoff experience.
Daunte Culpepper over Brooks -- First playoff start for Culpepper, second for Brooks.
Kerry Collins over McNabb -- Collins led the Panthers to the NFC Championship game in '96, but this was only his third playoff start, vs. the second for McNabb.

So while the numbers aren't as dramatic with the QBs as they are with the coaches, experience doesn't seem to matter nearly as much as it was once thought.

But this examination does bring to light a related point: where are all the experienced coaches and quarterbacks? What has happened to the men who dominated the playoffs of the 1990s? Where are the coaches like Bill Parcells, Jimmy Johnson, George Seifert and Mike Holmgren? Well, they're either retired, cashing big TV paychecks, or trying to resurrect another franchise. As for the QBs, John Elway went out on top, Steve Young went out with a headache, Troy Aikman might be right behind him, and Brett Favre's Packers have become salary cap casualties.

Which leads us to the final myth:

Myth: When you are looking to hire a coach, don?t bring in some re-tread -- hand over the reins to an up-and-coming coordinator.

You hear this one shouted from the mountaintops during every offseason, especially when you look at the NFL's abhorrent track record of hiring minorities. However, just because a coach is young or hasn't been there before doesn't mean he'll necessarily succeed. And the converse is also true -- just because a coach is a retread doesn't mean he can't succeed.

To wit: By my count, 10 teams started the season with a coach who was working at least his second head coaching job in the NFL. And they've had mixed success. Bruce Coslett and Bobby Ross didn't make it through the year; Wade Phillips lost his job after the year. Jim Mora turned around the Colts but hasn't won a playoff game with them yet. Wannstedt surprised everybody by leading the Dolphins to the AFC East title.

Bill Belichick is a flop in New England. Mike Shanahan has won two Super Bowls in Denver and is widely considered the finest coach in the league. Dan Reeves took the Falcons to the Super Bowl, but they've quickly returned to their miserable ways. And the jury is still out on Holmgren and Seifert, who are trying to make a difference in Seattle and Carolina, respectively.

Oh yeah, and welcome back Vermeil, who won a Lombardi Trophy in his second stint as a coach, and Marty Schottenheimer, who will try to do for the Redskins what he did for the Browns and Chiefs.

Meanwhile, "the new guy" has had mixed success as well. For every hot young coordinator or college coach who has taken the league by storm, there has been a guy who's been overmatched, outcoached and just plain outclassed in the NFL.

For every Dennis Green there's a Mike Riley.

Tom Coughlin? Chris Palmer.

Dungy, Haslett, Reid.

Dick Jauron, Dave Campo, Gunther Cunningham.

So don't buy into the hype when you hear the talking heads screaming about experience in the NFL. The myths are plentiful, but the facts speak for themselves.

5. Jesse Ventura -- Because when I hear "XFL" and "blimp" in the same sentence, I usually think of Jesse.
4. Matt Millen -- Do the Lions know that they just turned their organization over to a man who once noted -- on TV, mind you -- that a certain player had "the largest rectum in the NFL"? Let?s hope he brings a thesaurus to the Motor City.
3. Kobe & Shaq -- Because sports fans just don't have enough reasons to hate the NBA.
2. Daunte Culpepper -- This young man just continues to amaze.
1. Josh Heupel -- Way to go Sooners! By the way, who had 13-2 in the office pool?

Previous Donnelly Columns:
NFL Playoffs: It's An AFC Thing
NCAA Needs 'Holiday Hysteria'
Agent Of Change
Staring Down A Saints-Steelers Super Bowl?
Old Friends Renew Acquaintances
Only One Debate Really Matters ...
I Confess: I'm The Man Behind The Curtain!
Knight: Alpha Male, Phi Beta Kappa Jerk
Devil Rays Give Baseball A Black Eye
Too Much Tiger?
Ranting On Dennis Miller