My Very Own NL East Preview

It Looks Like the Braves Again. Sigh.

Ed Dykhuizen, Staff Writer

Ah, the sights and sounds of the beginnings of the baseball season. The freezing cold, the mountains of snow. The sound of a tire trying to free itself from a divot of ice. The taste of warm coffee on my shuddering, Minnesotan lips.

Granted, for someone like me, the baseball season gears up a little earlier than it does for most. For me it starts when football ends. Then the fantasy baseball magazines start showing up on the magazine rack. Then the Twins Fest comes and I forget to go. And then the Baseball Prospectus gets in my eager little baseball-nerd hands.

And it means that it's time for predictions. I think that, unless some major topic comes up along the way, I'm going to devote the next six weeks to blathering about each division, and what I foresee occurring in each.

Arbitrarily, let?s start with the National League East. It may sound boring and unimaginative, but it's true: It'll most likely be another battle between the Braves and Mets, with the rest of them comfortably far back. Let's look at the Braves first:

Atlanta Braves: How much longer do the Braves have for their dynasty? (And yes, it is a dynasty -- I don't care how many World Series titles they managed.) Their key to success was in their brilliant ability to get rid of older stars before they fell apart and replace them with the constant flow of young studs. Are they still on that path?

Well, they did bring up another young stud last year. Rafael Furcal gives them a solid run producer and a rapidly learning fielder at a crucial position, one at which they've never had a real star. He's only 20, and last year he had a .394 OBP. Man.

And did you realize that Andruw Jones is only 23 in 2001? That guy's finally showing why everyone thought he was a future Hall of Famer before he was even brought up. And of course, in Chipper Jones, they have the hands-down best third baseman in the league. Throw in one of the five best catchers in the league, Javy Lopez, and you have a brilliant core that no one else in this division can match. And then Quilvio Veras is a solid second baseman, with good speed, on-base skills, and OK defense.

If the rest of the lineup was just average, I'd just hand the World Series to the Braves now. But it isn't. The rest of the outfield was a couple of bad acquisitions, out of character for the Braves: Brian Jordan is the type of guy who will always be injured, and now he's old too, and B.J. Surhoff is 36 and not the type of player that excels in his late thirties.

And Rico Brogna, who apparently is going to take over first base for Andres Galarraga, is one of my least favorite players in the league. He's the type of guy who gets ignored, and for good reason. Then a few ardent but ignorant fans are wowed by his occasional 100 RBIs, and he gets labeled a "solid, underrated hitter." But, by the standards of starting first basemen in this hitting-rich era, his lifetime .321 OBP is just plain unacceptable. I can't really believe that he's the solution for first base for the Braves, but I don't see any other first basemen on their roster.

So overall, it's a good but not great offense. But it's always been the Braves' pitching that ensured their success. And they still have Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz (he's back, and apparently loose as a goose), and a Kevin Millwood who's due for a comeback from a subpar year.

Their fifth starter, John Burkett, will probably collapse this year. But who cares? They've got guys like Odalis Perez to pick up the slack. And while the bullpen isn't outstanding beyond John Rocker, Mike Remlinger and Kerry Ligtenberg, the effect is negligible.

Anyway, the Braves went 95-67 last year. According to the Pythagorean winning percentage, they should have won 90. So what are the differences between last year and this one?

Well, a full year from Smoltz -- big plus. A better year from Millwood -- plus. A downgrade from Galarraga to Brogna -- minus. Further development from Furcal and Andruw Jones -- plus. Having anyone in the outfield besides Reggie Sanders -- plus.

I was all ready to predict doom for the Braves, since their recent moves have not been nearly as brilliant as the ones in the past. But last year looks like it was an off year, and there's just too much talent on this roster to not see an improvement. I'm predicting 97 wins and a pretty easy first-place title.

New York Mets: In 2000, the Mets finished with 94 wins and won the wild card. Their Pythagorean winning percentage put them much lower, suggesting that they probably should have won 88. Even after the moves of the offseason, that number sounds about right for the Mets in 2001. For most every step forward that the 2001 Mets represent, there is a matching step back.

Most importantly, they lost Mike Hampton and replaced him with Kevin Appier. This is clearly a step down. But it's not a massive step -- it's going from one of the top ten starters in the league to one of the top 30. I can't picture the switch costing the Mets more than two games over the course of a season.

And the rest of the rotation figures to be good. You never know what you're going to get from Al Leiter, but you know it'll either be Appier-ish or Hampton-ish. Rick Reed is solid, but this may well be his last season of effectiveness, seeing as how he's already 36.

Glendon Rusch is the guy who I think could pick up some of the slack for all these oldsters. He's only 26, and he has not been overused at a young age. He was very capable last year, in his first full year, and is still learning. And he has a terrific walks/strikeouts ratio (44/157 in 190.6 innings). All these translate to a promising future.

And there's not much reason to believe that their relief corps will be anything less than outstanding once again. Armando Benitez and Turk Wendell are all among the best, most reliable in the league, but John Franco has to show signs of age eventually.

So anyway, all this adds up to a pitching staff that should be able to match or come close to last year's, which was one of the five best in the league. The hitting last year was average. How about this year?

Mike Piazza is so outstanding that he almost makes up for one of the more unimpressive outfields in the majors. Almost. The sad fact is that Timo Perez and Jay Payton are not going to help things; they're just not that good. Benny Agbayani shocked everyone by becoming a very good hitter last year -- it remains to be seen whether he can keep it up. Still, most anything is better than having Derek Bell use up 546 at-bats. His absence should help.

Robin Ventura is due for a comeback with the bat, but this effect could be offset by having Rey Ordonez back at short. Ordonez' defense is a big step up from having the terrible Melvin Mora there for half the year and the very steady Mike Bordick there for the other half, but his hitting is so bad that overall, he's a minus, even from the sorry Mora/Bordick combination. Otherwise, Todd Zeile probably has another so-so year in him and Edgardo Alfonzo should develop further into a superstar.

So overall, the pitching staff is a little less impressive, and that's about it. I think 87 wins sounds right.

Florida Marlins: In a recent column I wrote about how much I loved the direction that the Marlins were taking. They're doing everything right, building a solid core of youngsters that could constitute a dynasty very soon.

I might have been a bit too enthusiastic, since they don't seem to have a comparable group of future superstars that the Braves had in 1990. But they have a future-contender ballclub. At worst, they could become like the current Blue Jays, never winning anything, but always finishing above .500. At best, a few of the massive crop of youngsters could become superstars and they could indeed become the Braves of the Aughts.

They've got a good youngster ready to get better at almost every position. Derrek Lee is at first, Luis Castillo at second, Mike Lowell at third; Preston Wilson, Cliff Floyd and Mark Kotsay in the outfield. And even if he has one of his mediocre years, token veteran Charles Johnson is a huge improvement over the cast of strikeout victims they had last year at catcher.

And at shortstop, well, there simply has to be something better this year. In 2000, Alex Gonzalez was the single worst regular in the majors, logging a .229 OBP. In 2001, you have to expect better returns either from him or young Pablo Ozuna or, heck, if they pull Dickie Thon out of retirement it will be an improvement.

With improvements at catcher and short and better seasons from the rest as they develop, the Marlins' offense should go from second-worst in the league to the middle of the pack.

The pitching staff was already in the middle of the pack last year. And again, there's lots of youth that will most likely get better. Ryan Dempster is already there, and he could soon be joined by Brad Penny, Jesus Sanchez and A.J. Burnett. Reid Cornelius will take up space capably, and who knows, maybe even Alex Fernandez will contribute an inning or two between arm injuries.

So all in all, this looks like a .500 team to me. Some of the kids will disappoint, but some will step it up, and it will all add up to a an 81-81 season.

Montreal Expos: Similarly, I like the Expos for a bump up this year. Heck, I've always liked the Expos. Perennial underdogs, intelligent organization, good at developing talent. How can you not like the Expos?

Well, there's one reason: They're apparently not catching on to the increasingly relevant maxim of the modern baseball age -- batter walks = wins. It's not that walks by themselves are more valuable than hits, it's just that major leaguers have a wide disparity in their ability to draw walks.

See, 99 percent of major leaguers hit somewhere between .250 and .320. Not a huge disparity. It translates to a range of 138 to 176 hits per 550 at-bats. But if you took 99 percent of major leaguers, their walks per 550 at-bats would range from 30 to 100, easily. A much larger disparity. That's the top tier drawing three times as many walks as the bottom tier.

The point of this is not to say that walks are more important than hits -- they're not, not at all. But it is to say that almost major league players can hit within a certain range. So to get a real edge over the competition, you need to teach guys from the beginning to learn how to work the strike zone as well. It has worked for the A's and the Giants -- both teams who have much better offenses than they appear to on paper. Both led their leagues last year in walks. Dead last on the walks list are the Expos and Royals, two teams who sure look like should have better offenses than they do.

Anyway, the point is that this doesn't bode well for the long-term future of the Expos. They've got three terrific young hitters in Vladimir Guerrero, Jose Vidro and Fernando Tatis. But they'll never have a suitable supporting cast worth their weight in beans if they don't teach some plate discipline.

I'm optimistic about their pitching staff, which at first glance doesn't inspire much optimism. I like young fireballer Javier Vazquez a ton, and I think Britt Reames could have a couple of good years, while Carl Pavano and Tony Armas Jr. are young enough to keep getting better. Their bullpen is solid, and Ugueth Urbina could bounce back.

That said, it's far from an outstanding staff, definitely below average. Overall, I'd pick the Expos to improve to 72-90, as Tatis gives a huge lift and the rest of the kids get better. But again, they'll never be a contender unless their batters learn some patience.

Philadelphia Phillies: Oh, the Phillies. I'm sorry if you're a fan, but can anyone think of a more pathetic franchise, throughout its history? I mean, the Twins and Expos are sadder now, but they had great teams in the past. The Phillies have been around since 1883. They had some glory years in the late '70s and early '80s, when Mike Schmidt was the best player in the majors. Otherwise, throughout the last 130 years, they've won three unconvincing league championships here and there and have lost 100 or more games 14 times.

And at the moment they're a team whose current failures show few signs of letting up and don't have the "we're rebuilding" excuse to fall back on. They're not rebuilding, they're just throwing together whoever happens to be available and calling it a team. Over the offseason they signed Ricky Bottalico, Jose Mesa, Rheal Cormier, and Brian Hunter, for a combined $8 million. This is a big old package of crap. $8 million crap. We used to put together bags like this, put them on the principal's doorstep, and set them on fire.

I'm sure someone and probably everyone is using the "low-budget" excuse for these signings. "They don't have the budget for Manny Ramirez and Mike Hampton," the argument goes, "so they have to settle for the lesser stars."

The answer to this argument is "no, they don't." They could not sign anybody, save the $8 million of precious, apparently hard-to-come-by cash, and invest it in the minor leagues. In the meantime, they could play someone semi-competent or someone ready to do something that won't cripple them -- the minors are teeming with this kind of player. At the very least you could get Jose Mesa-type production for a fraction of the cost.

To be fair, though, they have more great players than a true-blue cellar-dweller. Bobby Abreu is a hitting marvel. Scott Rolen has unexpectedly been slowed by injuries, but he's still one of the better third basemen in the league. Expect Pat Burrell to have a huge breakout year in 2001. Mark Lieberthal is getting older, but he's still a great-hitting catcher. But the rest of the lineup is horrible.

As far as pitching, Robert Person shocked everyone by having one of the better ERAs in the league in 2000, but it could well be a fluke, and he's already 31. Most exciting is Bruce Chen, who the Phils managed to wheedle away from the suddenly impatient Braves. The Phillies have the capacity to make a good trade now and then.

But overall, the Phillies have more holes than O.J.'s alibi. They look as though they'll repeat in last. I could see them at 68-94, with another terrible pitching staff.

OK, that's it. Phew. I'm picking every team to finish exactly the same as they did last year. How boring of me. Oh well, maybe the N.L. Central next week will prove to have a little more fluctuation. Any comments?

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