My Take On The NL West

It's A Fun Division

Ed Dykhuizen, Staff Writer

I have to warn you, I spent most of the weekend reading the Baseball Prospectus, which does this team analysis thing better and more thoroughly than anyone else out there. So many of my opinions about this week's division, the National League West, are informed by it, and I'm hopefully a little wiser than the Ed who made a few mistakes here and there in his predictions for The National League East and The National League Central.

Colorado Rockies: I should level with you, I don't really want to predict the Rockies for first place in the West. But it's a wide-open division, per usual, and it looks like the Wacky Rockies are finally getting a hold on things.

I have a number of prejudices against the Rockies, stemming from my personality. I like Order and Reason. I like players to be rated in a manner exactly commensurate with their true worth. I like to think I'm basically on top of things; so when presented with a big, burgeoning stadium full of Weird in the form of the Shockies, I blanch.

In case you're horribly unhip, I should explain: The Rockies came into the league in a home park like none other in baseball history. The air in Colorado is so unbelievably thin that curveballs don't break, home runs become incredibly easy and Dante Bichettes become superstars. But the fans love it, and set attendance records left and right.

The problem was that Colorado seemed to be having such a grand time that they didn't notice that they weren't very good and had no real plan to get better. They had great pitchers who looked terrible and mediocre hitters who became stars, and it was all one big, dazed orgy of home runs and delirium.

I hated it immediately. See, when a team is a financial success without winning, it's the kind of thing that sets a damaging precedent, especially in baseball, where the primary maxim is "nothing succeeds like something that already succeeded for someone else." Without the threat of a disgruntled fan base lighting a fire under them, the Rockies didn't have to work hard and figure out how to adapt their strategies to the peculiarities of their home field. And because those peculiarities are so peculiar, they have to figure those out to win anything.

So what has changed, to make me think they can take it all? A lot of things. Their GM of a full year now, Dan O'Dowd, is a nerd. That's a compliment. Whereas most GMs just sign whatever players they've heard of, the nerdy ones commission studies and pore through minor league rosters and think very, very hard. O'Dowd has been tackling the problem head-on of how to win in Wackyland.

And if there was ever a situation that needed some heavy thought, it's Colorado. To this end, O'Dowd turned over the roster several times. He worked at getting sinkerball pitchers (i.e. Jose Jimenez) and shunned the curveball ones (i.e. Darryl Kile) because that's what the thin Colorado air favors. He jettisoned the aging sluggers who couldn't hit away from Coors (Bichette, Vinny Castilla) and replaced them with solid, smart hitters like Jeff Cirillo.

Last season all that thinkin' and cogitatin' panned out. While climbing up a steep learning curve they went from 72-90 to 82-80. They built perhaps the best bullpen core in the majors (and without an overly expensive stud closer -- what does that tell you?) and their pitching as a whole, once you factor out the park effects, was actually above average. (Sound odd? See the middle of this previous column for explanation.)

And of course, they improved it further for 2001 by bringing in Denny Neagle and Mike Hampton. Neagle wasn't worth the money -- his peak is over, and he's a fly ball pitcher, which is death in Coors. But the Rockies have cash to blow on experiments like that, and he'll at least be an improvement. But Mike Hampton, an extreme ground ball pitcher, was a superb pickup. Throughout 2001, he'll serve 'em up, and the Ozzie Smith of the Aughts, shortstop Neifi Perez, will knock 'em down.

Another smart move by the Rockies was to snag Todd Walker from the Twins. Word to the wise: Talented young players who have disappointed and run afoul of their crotchety, grumpy old managers are prime candidates for a major upswing.

The Rockies' outfield is amazingly underwhelming. Larry Walker will be gangbusters for half a season, until he gets injured. Juan Pierre will take over center and be OK, and left field will probably be manned by Ron Gant. Gant is precisely the type of player who the Rockies don't need at any price, much less the millions they're paying him.

But, oh well. Their new catcher, Ben Petrick, has been touted for years and should break out this year. As we know from the Mets, a terrific catcher can make up for a bad outfield.

All told, this is a team on the rise. And I didn't even mention basher Todd Helton, or other good starters like Pedro Astacio and Brian Bohanon. They're not air-tight yet, but Colorado is smart enough to replace what doesn't work with what does during the season and come away with a 95-67 record.

San Francisco Giants: Last year the Giants were arguably the best team in the National League. They did it by having a terrifically managed offense, by Dusty Baker, and an inhumanly durable starting staff.

Let me tell you one of my favorite things about the Giants last year, because it's illustrative of how a little rational thought applied to a problem can solve it. Baseball management tends to have a bullheaded stubborn approach to things, a set of absolute maxims, that often jeopardizes a teams' capabilities.

Ellis Burks is a terrific hitter. But, by no fault of his own, he is chronically gimpy. Even when he's not on the DL, the wear and tear of playing every day causes aches and pains that hamper his performance. This has been true for Ellis for years and years.

But managers kept running him out there each day, just praying that he wouldn't hurt himself again and refusing to think that there might be an alternative solution. Dusty Baker found a really very simple one: He kept Burks on a light schedule, resting him every few days. Young stud Armando Rios, who needed work but wasn't ready to be a regular yet, picked up the slack.

And together, the two contributed outstanding production, much better than a battle-scarred Burks could have done alone. This is a flexible, creative solution, in which a manager takes advantage of a player's strengths and minimizes his weaknesses rather than expecting every player to be Barry Bonds.

And it's illustrative of Baker's exemplary handling of his offense, which was the league's best because of him. Of course, it helps to have Bonds and Jeff Kent, but the rest of them are no great shakes: It was Baker's handling that made it all work like a machine.

And they'll be almost as good this year. Whatever downturn represented by the loss of Bill Mueller will be more than made up for by the development of young catcher Bobby Estalella. Rios can probably take over for Burks full-time, if not as well.

The reason I don't think that the Giants can repeat is because of their starting staff. It was terrific last year, remarkably durable and solid. I can't see it happening again. With all of Baker's expert handling of offense, he's brutal on his starters. Look for several breakdowns and a lot more chaos.

All told, it'll still be an 88-74 season.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Remember when the Dodgers were the class of the National League? I'm repeating myself again; in a previous column I got into the current woes of the Blue Crew. But those thoughts warrant embellishment.

Since Jackie Robinson joined the club, and Branch Rickey's brilliance infused every aspect of the organization, they've been the paragon of Everything Right About Building a Ballclub. They scouted hard, developed well, and constantly made room for the resultant young studs. And they consistently won, much more so than any other National League team.

Then the New Baseball Order came down, where everyone panicked and suddenly decided that free agent acquisitions and money can win championships faster than that dumb, old-school "intelligence and hard work" way. The Fox folks, when they took over the Dodgers, took this more to heart than any other club, and ended up making a pig's breakfast of everything.

Besides the designated numbskulls of the American League, the Baltimore Orioles, the Dodgers have the least cost-efficiency of any club. Their astronomical salary payouts buy them seasons with mid-80s win totals. They haven't met the sad fate of the Orioles, only because even GM Kevin Malone's few years of sound and fury signifying nothing can't erase 50 years of brilliant structure-building.

As you would expect from a team owned by an entertainment empire, the Dodgers make huge headlines with things that actually don't mean much at all. In the past few years they've tried to plug each hole by giving a long-term contract to a mediocre veteran on the down phase of his career.

Here's an essential rule of thumb that people like Kevin Malone don't seem to grasp: When you sign a free agent, you are paying for what they will do in the future, not what they did in the past. Why sign a 35-year-old Devon White for three years; you're not buying the 24 home runs he hit in 1987. You're buying injuries and the natural decline that comes to an aging player who was mediocre to begin with.

The Dodgers still haven't learned this lesson, and signed Andy Ashby and Darren Dreifort to large contracts. Both could be useful, maybe, but their contracts will make them millstones on the necks of the organization very soon.

Anyway, through all their idiocy, the Dodgers still won 86 games last year. They still had two of the league's 15 best players in Kevin Brown and Gary Sheffield, and had two of the next 15 in Shawn Green and Chan Ho Park. They still had a future superstar in Adrian Beltre.

And in 2001, they'll still have those players. Whoa, hold on, they might not have Sheffield if he has anything to say about it. With him, I'd predict 85 wins. Without him, I'd say 80. He's that good.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Yet again, here's a team about which I've already ranted. I'm thinking that this is the year when the deal they apparently made with the Devil comes back to haunt them.

Granted, it basically already has. Espousers of the Kevin Malone club-building philosophy since their inception, Arizona managed to get great performance from the great guys they signed on (e.g. Randy Johnson) and great performance from the mediocre ones too (e.g. Luis Gonzalez, Steve Finley). My theory is that the city of Phoenix pumps black-market revitalizing tonic in the drinking water down there, to pump all the old folks full of enough vim and vigor to tell all the folks back home in Michigan how great Arizona is.

Anyway, the point is that the Diamondbacks have always played over their heads. And now they're old, and each acquisition is making them older. I have a real problem with teams who acquire the veterans that everyone's heard of, who have little chance of doing well, when they could work a little harder to familiarize themselves with the tons of talent in the vast minor league system and get someone cheap, better, and with tons of upside. It just doesn't make any sense, except in terms of pleasing ignorant fans with exciting-sounding headlines.

More to the point, it doesn't work. The way it stands for 2001, the Diamondbacks' assets can be counted on one left hand, Randy Johnson's. And even he showed signs of decline last year.

OK, there are a few other players that could possibly be good. Curt Schilling may be his old dominant self, but more likely his massive workloads of the past will catch up with him and he'll break down. First baseman Erubiel Durazo is 27 and could have a breakout year, but now he's stuck behind Mark Grace. Starter Brian Anderson has demonstrated an incredible control, and that's a good omen. Reliever Byung Hyun-Kim is great and would be superb if the organization would have some faith in him.

Everything else will get worse. Grace at first, Jay Bell at second, Tony Womack at short, Matt Williams at third, Damian Miller at catcher; Steve Finley, Reggie Sanders and Luis Gonzalez in the outfield -- all these guys are prime candidates for either a major dropoff or another plodding, subpar season. Todd Stottlemyre will probably lose both of his arms and legs and try to play through it. Matt Mantei simply isn't as great as the Diamondbacks think he is.

I see very few causes for optimism about the Diamondbacks' 2001. If it weren't for the Padres, they'd be last-place material. And by 2002, the young Padres will be improving while Arizona will only get worse. 75-87 predicted finish.

San Diego Padres: The Tony Gwynn era has ended. Long live Tony.

Whenever any old fart starts complaining about ballplayers nowadays, bring up Tony Gwynn. Never was there a more loyal, gracious, intelligent, disciplined, even-tempered hero in baseball. Tony makes those old farts' heroes, everyone from Mickey Mantle to Ted Williams, look like a lot of Latrell Sprewells.

Unfortunately, it is now time for Tony to retire. Last season he cost his beloved Padres more than $8 million for his 127 at-bats -- much less than he could've gotten, but much more than a team like the Padres can waste. He's not going to have another healthy season, and his continued presence is just taking time, energy and money away from a much-needed rebuilding effort.

Once he's gone, the Padres will become the most anonymous team in baseball, but not necessarily the worst. Ryan Klesko and Phil Nevin have been successful reclamation projects and are very good, underrated performers. Matt Clement is a young ace on the rise, as soon as he works out control problems. Trevor Hoffman is still Trevor Hoffman. Woody Williams is much more of a dogged competitor on the mound than you'd expect a guy named Woody Williams to be.

And there are plenty of good young hopes. Catcher Ben Davis could start contributing soon. Third base super-prospects Xavier Nady and Sean Burroughs should make for some logistical chaos as the Pads figure out where to stick them. Starter Adam Eaton was thrown into the rotation last year as an act of desperation and demonstrated tons of promise. Maybe even Ruben Rivera could finally reach his potential this year.

All in all, the Padres are a mess, but a lot of the mess is good. I'm thinking that in 2001 they'll work to sort it all out and in the process go something like 69-93. Watch out for them in 2002, though.

That's all for the NL West. Another 2500-word column. So even when I'm better informed, I'm still too wordy. Oh well. Any reactions?

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