AL West: Can Anyone Beat The A's?

Time for the American League West, in the last of my divisional previews. Luckily, this is a mini-division -- there's like two teams or sumthin' -- so maybe this preview will be relatively short and sweet. The key word is "relatively."

Oakland Athletics: The A's are every stathead- sabermetrician- baseball- geek-guy- in- the- stands- every- day- hunched- over- a- scorecard- and- blowing- into- an- inhaler's favorite team. General manager Billy Beane has taken the lessons of the Moses of sabermetrics, Bill James, put them into practice, and created a dynamic, pennant-winning team assembled on the cheap, essentially changing a laughingstock into the perfect franchise.

It's all about their hitting. And it will only get better. Over the offseason they jettisoned their only starters over 30 years old, Matt Stairs and Randy Velarde, replacing them with better, younger players Johnny Damon and rookie Jose Ortiz. Meanwhile, young studs Eric Chavez, Miguel Tejada, Terrence Long and Adam Piatt will improve, while relative oldsters Jason Giambi and Olmedo Saenz will continue busting up the league. Maybe even John Jaha will have one of his trademark comebacks.

The A's will have the best offense in the league; there's little doubt of that. It's the pitching that I worry about. Over the offseason they lost the fair-to-middlin' Kevin Appier -- he's not great shakes, but these days you don't replace 200 league-average innings very easily.

And I'm not optimistic about Gil Heredia. From what I've heard, he's a one-trick pony, and as soon as hitters figure out that one trick, he's toast. Then there's Omar Olivares, who is at the age where mediocre pitchers like him start to fall apart. Mark Mulder is also not inspiring confidence in me, but at least he's young, so anything could happen.

That said, there's also a lot to be happy about here: Tim Hudson is superb, Barry Zito is a star in the making, and there's a relief corps that includes Jim Mecir and last year's out-of-nowhere brilliant reliever, Jeff Tam. Jason Isringhausen is a tougher call; darned if I know what he'll do this year.

So it looks like the A's pitchers will be hard-pressed to repeat their 2000 performance, when they were probably third-best in the league. But with that hitting, there's room to experiment.

Besides, the A's are such a smart organization that only a fool would bet against their ability to slap something workable together in a pinch. I'd predict them to take home another division title with a 95-win season. But I wouldn't bet on their pitching to be strong enough to see them get far in the playoffs.

Seattle Mariners: Poor Mariners. They had three of the top players in history, Griffey, Johnson, and Rodriguez, and couldn't get it done. Now all are gone.

Maybe instead of "poor Mariners" we should be saying "stupid Mariners." Stupid for hanging on too long to a GM, Woody Williams, who made little besides terrible trades. Stupid for having too much faith in the incongruously popular Lou Piniella, who, until new pitching coach Bryan Price took over recently, turned his young starters' arms into ribbons.

The M's may have the best scouting program in the majors, but it's all for naught if the guys upstairs can't do it right. The latest setback, the loss of two future stars Gil Meche and Ryan Anderson, seems like bad luck more than anything, but it could doom the Mariners from really competing with the A's.

There's that, and the fact that the second-greatest player in baseball (Pedro is tops) has been replaced by Carlos Guillen. Not that there's anything wrong with Carlos ? in fact, this whole offense is kinda like that. Not that there's anything wrong with Mark McLemore, Bret Boone, David Bell, Chris Widger, Dan Wilson, Al Martin ? it's just that there's not a whole lot that's good with them.

There's a lot that's good with Edgar Martinez, but he's only one man. Jay Buhner could come back for a full season, which would be tons of fun, and Mike Cameron is a solid, underrated center fielder. Ichiro Suzuki, the 27-year-old Johnny Damon of Japan, could prove a great, if not very powerful, hitter.

But that's just not enough to rest an offense on. And the Mariners' pitching, robbed of those two young phenoms, probably won't be able to carry the team. They're left with the solid Aaron Sele, the very good Freddy Garcia, the over-his-head John Halama, the unpredictable, aging Jamie Moyer, the despised Brett Tomko, and two good relievers in Jose Paniagua and Kazuhiro Sazaki. Even in the pitching-starved American League, that's not the staff of a champion.

But, all told, the Mariners are still good enough for an 81-81 season.

Texas Rangers: What happened to Texas last year? Did anyone ever figure that out? Did anyone care?

Well, it doesn't really matter, because now they have A-Rod. In general, I'm not one to jump on a team's bandwagon just because they made a big-deal free agent signing. But in this case, I've not only jumped on, but I've settled in, chatted up the driver and stuck my head out the window to yell "Moo!!!" at the cows.

Translated, that means that I think that A-Rod is a stunning addition to the Rangers, replacing the mediocre Royce Clayton and making the Rangers an offensive powerhouse just a notch below the A's or White Sox.

Of course, it takes a village to make an offense, and the Rangers do have some great supporting cast. If it's possible to be Hall of Famers and be supporting players, Ivan Rodriguez and Rafael Palmeiro will do it this year. Also, expected comebacks from underrated players like Rusty Greer and Gabe Kapler should offset the probable deterioration of odd acquisitions Randy Velarde, Andres Galarraga and Ken Caminiti.

And with the promising but still unproven duo Ruben Mateo and Mike Lamb, they should be able to cover the oldsters' inevitable injuries, somewhat. Overall, it's not as complete an offense as that of the A's -- which is kinda like calling Sammy Sosa a weakling because he doesn't hit as many homers as Mark McGwire, but it's still valid.

With the Rangers' pitching, though, you pretty much have to have an otherworldly offense to win the division. Last year their pitching was the worst in the league, by far, and it wasn't too much worse than their showing in all their division-title-winning years.

The staff is anchored by Rick Helling, who manages to be consistently OK. He's joined by Kenny Rogers, who not only knows how to pitch a solid, unspectacular 200 innings, but also knows when to hold 'em, knows when to fold 'em, and knows when to run (I apologize -- but Kenny's really bringing it on himself. Kenny, why don't you go by your middle name?)

After those two there's a gigantic mess, made up of flameout Darren Oliver, permanently injured Justin Thompson, and whoever else can be rounded up from the stands. On the relief side, Jeff Zimmerman was a great story and is now a so-so reliever, while John Wetteland may have finally lost his touch. Over the offseason, they got "help" from Mark Petkovsek, a 35-year-old reliever who wasn't much when he was 27.

Not only do I not see a reason to hope for improvement, I don't even see any candidates here for a better year, besides perhaps Doug Davis. And the Rangers organization has never demonstrated ability to undertake the delicate task of nurturing young pitchers.

The Rangers should receive a big boost this year from their offense, and still battle the Mariners for second place. 81-81 predicted finish.

Anaheim Angels: What is it about organizations led by media moguls? Like the Dodgers, the Angels have oodles of cash but still manage to screw it up. Whether it's an episode of "When Animals Attack Naked Co-Eds," a direct-to-video sequel to "Herbie Goes Bananas," or a major-league baseball team, these media jackals seem to think that if you spend a whole lot of money, you can make a winner really fast.

It doesn't work that way. The Angels always bring up a few greats, like the current core of Tim Salmon, Darin Erstad and Troy Glaus. But their overall motto has always been "win now." As a result, they have never won anything -- with their outlook, they don't expend the necessary time and energy to develop a complete team.

Pitchers, more than hitters, require painstaking time and effort to develop into major leaguers. And look at this Angels pitching staff: It's a marvel of across-the-board shoddiness. The only Angel who managed enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, Scott Schoeneweis, went 7-10 with a 5.45 ERA in 2000. With Troy Percival struggling through his death throes as closer, their best pitcher may well be Shigetoshi Hasegawa, who is basically just a solid middle reliever.

There is a little bit of promise in young hurlers Ramon Ortiz and Jarrod Washburn, if they don't get injured. That's a big "if," since the Angels don't have a good track record in such matters.

Meanwhile, the offense is a big game of "Fortunately, Unfortunately." Fortunately, they have the best third baseman in the league, Troy Glaus. Unfortunately, their solid first baseman, Mo Vaughn, is out for the year. Fortunately, they have one of the most underrated stars in baseball, Tim Salmon. Unfortunately, they have two of the most overrated stars in baseball in Garret "Walk? What's A Walk?" Anderson and Gary "Team Leader ? To Last Place" DiSarcina.

Fortunately, Darin Erstad has finally found his stroke and then some. Unfortunately, the catching corps is uninspiring and their second baseman, Adam Kennedy, is already overrated and is battling an injury.

I really don't think this spells a good team. And, perhaps more importantly, I don't have a lot of faith in the organization's ability to find a way to win or fill the inevitable holes or to do much of anything, frankly. 64-98 predicted finish.

That's all she (he) wrote for the divisional previews. Next week I'll be able to get into all the side issues that have been swarming around my fertile little brain for the past six weeks. Like, is Harold Baines a Hall of Famer? Is the salary cap and revenue sharing a good idea after all? What major leaguer has the funniest-sounding name? In the meantime, any comments?