@ The Movies: Oscar Predictions

If I were a betting person, I'd keep the purse strings pulled pretty tight for this year's Academy Awards. Without question, Sunday is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable award nights in Oscar's history.

BIGGEST WINNERS All The Winners "Gladiator" 5 "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" 4 "Traffic" 4

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If the voting trends of the industry guild awards carry any weight, it seems that "Gladiator's" charge for major victory will be a steep uphill battle--and that comes despite a dominating tally of 12 nominations (the film with the most nominations usually has the edge).

Aside from "Gladiator's" 12 nods and 10 for "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon," it's obvious that Oscar voters had a hard time making up their minds this year for who and what else should be honored.

In my opinion, anyway, the most glaring omission came with the lack of best director and best picture nominations for Cameron Crowe and his coming-of-age rock opus, "Almost Famous," which is easily one of the best films of the year.

But even in the absence of the "Almost Famous" nominations, the Academy couldn't come to an agreement for directors and films that did make the cut. "Chocolat" was nominated for picture, while director Lasse Hallstrom was not; and, conversely, director Stephen Daldry was nominated for best director, while his "Billy Elliot" failed to grab a best picture nomination.

Perhaps the biggest dilemma facing voters this year, though, is the double nomination of director Steven Soderbergh. No matter whether they're voting for him for directing "Erin Brockovich" or "Traffic" (which are both nominated for best picture), they are hurting his chances at winning an Oscar. It's a cruel injustice for the year's most-hailed filmmaker.

With the lack of many clear-cut front-runners for Oscar, viewers should be looking forward to the most unpredictable drama that Hollywood is putting out this year.

As a basis for my predictions, I'm following most of the voting trends set by the organizations that know best: The industry guilds, namely the actors, directors and producers. After all, these are the very same people that vote on the Oscars -- you can't get any better of a lead than that.

Another factor in my predictions comes from that fact that the Oscar race is a very political process. Ads are taken out in trade publications to influence votes, and a media saavy Miramax proved in 1998 that mucho marketing could work with an upset win for "Shakespeare In Love" over "Saving Private Ryan" for best picture.

Then there's the repeat factor. Tom Hanks aside, it's a tough feat for actors to win that second Oscar, and nearly impossible to win a third. It's hard to say why, history has just proven that Oscar likes to share the wealth. And with six previous actor winners in the fold this year, it may be a factor.

Here are the predictions . . .

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees: Jeff Bridges, "The Contender"; Willem Dafoe, "Shadow of the Vampire"; Benicio Del Toro, "Traffic" Albert Finney, "Erin Brockovich"; Joaquin Phoenix, "Gladiator"

Analysis: Always one of the toughest categories to call, momentum seems to be with Del Toro for "Traffic." After all, he grabbed a prestigious the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) award in the best actor category, beating this year's entire crop of best actor Oscar nominees in the process.

Finney won the SAG award for best supporting actor, so don't immediately write him off. Sure, he's a veteran actor, and the supporting actor category has often been a category for sentimental favorites, allowing Oscar to reward a complete body of work. But that's not the reason he's in the running. There's no question that his role as a haggard Ed Masry was easily one of the year's best portrayals and well-deserving of not only a nomination, but a win. Of course, Bridges, Dafoe and Phoenix are worthy, too. It's a shame that four actors will go home empty-handed.

Prediction: It's a toss-up between Del Toro and Finney, but look for a Del Toro win for "Traffic." If there's going to be an upset, however, look for Phoenix to go home with the statuette. His portrayal of Commodus in "Gladiator" was deliciously complex, and is well-deserving of a statuette.

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: Judi Dench, "Chocolat"; Marcia Gay Harden, "Chocolat"; Kate Hudson, "Almost Famous"; Frances McDormand, "Almost Famous"; Julie Walters, "Billy Elliot"

Analysis: While I initially thought Frances McDormand would be a lock for a win after I saw "Almost Famous," some other factors have since crept into my thought processes. Number one, a brilliantly subtle, SAG-winning performance by Dench in "Chocolat" was too sweet to ignore and two, a friend convinced me that Hudson has a good shot since Hollywood is grooming her for stardom (she's the daughter of Goldie Hawn, which doesn't hurt, and you have to remember, Oscar voting is a political process: a win will be her launching pad into superstardom).

Don't get me wrong, she's terrific in "Almost Famous," but McDormand clearly gives the better performance. As for the other two nominees, Walters is at a disadvantage because she's not well-known in the states, and Harden, while better-known in the states, is in a film few have seen.

Prediction: That second Oscar is always a tough one to earn, and that's a dilemma that faces both Mc Dormand and Dench. But Dench (won who for supporting actress for "Shakespeare in Love") will taste victory once again for "Chocolat." If there's an upset, expect it to go to Hudson for "Almost Famous."

Best Actor

The Nominees: Javier Bardem, "Before Night Falls"; Russell Crowe, "Gladiator"; Tom Hanks, "Cast Away"; Ed Harris, "Pollock"; Geoffrey Rush, "Quills"

Analysis: You would think losing 50 pounds and enduring a deadly leg infection would be anybody's ticket to a best actor Oscar, but when you're Hanks, going for his third best actor trophy, well, put it this way--nobody else has done it before, which greatly hampers his chances--at least this time around.

You see, Oscar has this wonderful way of spreading its wealth, and for that reason, another brilliant performance by Rush in "Quills" (who won before in "Shine") will almost certainly be overlooked. Harris is a well-respected actor in Hollywood (which obviously explains his nomination), but the lack of visibility for his film (and Bardem's for "Before Night Falls") won't give him enough steam to put it over the top.

One guy that does have momentum, though, is last year's "The Insider" nominee Crowe, whose charismatic turn as General Maximus gave "Gladiator" its heart. Pundits may be in a quandary picking a favorite in this category since a best supporting actor nominee, Benicio Del Toro, took home the best actor SAG award for "Traffic."

Prediction: Expect Hanks and Crowe to duel it out, but Crowe to emerge victorious for "Gladiator."

Best Actress

The Nominees: Joan Allen, "The Contender"; Juliette Binoche, "Chocolat"; Ellen Burstyn, "Requiem For a Dream"; Laura Linney, "You Can Count On Me"; Julia Roberts, "Erin Brockovich"

Analysis: If there's a "sure thing" for anything this year, Julia Roberts is it for "Erin Brockovich." For starters, her gutsy performance has stood the test of time (the film came out in March of 2000, and Oscar voters usually have a short memory when it comes to nominations), which speaks volumes. She's also hung in her career through ups and downs, and once she finally did taste success among her peers, she's genuinely grateful (she was on the verge of tears accepting her SAG award for best actress, thanking all around her for making her look great).

Even with the success of all her previous roles (and two previous Oscar nominations to boot), this clearly signaled a dramatic step forward, quite literally, for the traditional romantic-comedy actress. Binoche has all but conceded her loss to Roberts already, although when it comes to surprises, she should know better: With her Oscar-winning turn in "The English Patient," she pulled the rug from under another "lock," Laura Bacall for "The Mirror Has Two Faces." If anybody has a chance to grab the Oscar away from Roberts, it's Allen's strong turn as a vice presidential candidate in "The Contender." Though both darlings with the critics, Linney and Burstyn (who won a best actress Oscar for "Alice Doesn't Live Here Anymore" in 1974) will suffer for the lack of visibility of their films.

Prediction: Her third try at Oscar will be a charm for Roberts as "Erin Brockovich." Ignoring her towering performance would be like denying "Titanic" a best picture Oscar.

Best Director

The Nominees: Stephen Daldry, "Billy Elliot"; Ang Lee, "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"; Ridley Scott, "Gladiator"; Steven Soderbergh; "Erin Brockovich"; Steven Soderbergh, "Traffic"

Analysis: Out of all the movie awards, the Directors Guild of America (DGA) has been the most reliable tracker, as all but four of winners in its 53-year history have gone home with the best director Oscar. This year's winner was Lee for "Crouching Tiger," which gives him the edge, but the producer's guild named Scott's "Gladiator" its winner, and the picture and director Oscars usually go hand-in-hand.

While he made history by becoming only the second-ever double-nominee in the director's category, Soderbergh probably won't win for either of his films, simply on the virtue that supporters of "Brockovich" and "Traffic" will cancel each other out with their votes. Daldry obviously has the least chance with "Billy Elliot," which, while a memorable film, was not nominated for best picture.

Prediction: Like the supporting actor category, this award is a toss-up. While I'd love to follow the DGA's lead and go with Lee, I'm following my gut and going out on a limb with Scott. Lee's direction is richly choreographed, but hey, Scott rebuilt the Roman Coliseum!

Best Picture

The Nominees: "Chocolat"; "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"; "Erin Brockovich"; "Gladiator"; "Traffic"

Analysis: If Lee grabs the Oscar for best director, don't expect an automatic win for "Crouching Tiger" as best picture (think of how Steven Spielberg was robbed of a best picture Oscar for "Saving Private Ryan" two years ago). The film is all but a lock in the best foreign film category, and Oscar voters may be less inclined to reward him again.

"Gladiator" again, was the choice of the producers guild, but it?s the fact that it?s a grand-scale epic (and a dazzling epic at that), and Oscar voters traditionally favor epics. "Chocolat's" lack of a director's nomination melts its chances for a win, and Soderbergh's "Erin Brockovich" has been overshadowed by his critically-acclaimed "Traffic" ever since the awards race began. While its unlikely, "Traffic's" SAG win for best ensemble cast may signal a voter trend and fall in the film's favor; however, the SAG ensemble is an award only voted on by actors (the best picture Oscar is voted on by everybody).

Prediction: "Gladiator" will seize best picture--it's just too grand a spectacle to be ignored.