Poor Rick Ankiel. But Other Youngsters ...
Let's Get Bummed About Ankiel And Get Happy About Some Future Stars
In case you're not up to speed, Ankiel is still struggling with his Steve Blass disease. It's becoming an all-too-common affliction lately, what with Chuck Knoblauch and Mark Wohlers undergoing similar problems. One wonders if it will be the Tommy John surgery of the millennium and become the "in" thing for all up-and-comers.
It seems unusually straightforward. It seems to strike under extreme pressure, when suddenly you start thinking about what you're doing instead of relying on your all-important muscle memory. Then you screw up royally. Then you start thinking, "OK, I'm thinking too much, need to stop," and then you're thinking about thinking, which messes you up further.
By then hope is lost -- once the knowledge of the problem hits, it can never be erased; it'll lurk behind each pitch. With Ankiel, I'm sure he'll still be a good pitcher, but he may battle with this for the rest of his career.
Maybe some hypnotism is in order. Or maybe the old "Bull Durham" bit where the star pitcher is told to breathe through his eyelids. It's impossible, of course, but it makes him stop thinking about pitching.
In fact, I'm surprised that Steve Blass disease doesn't happen more often. Considering the amazing pressure of this game, in which the everyone's eyes are focused on you, in which your every move will be analyzed, in which the hopes of an entire city are riding on your shoulders -- wouldn't you think more people would over-think under those pressures? Maybe it helps that so many baseball players aren't so bright.
At any rate, someone should study the personality and mental health profiles of the people who get Steve Blass disease. The only one I really know much about is Ankiel, and considering his age (21) and personal background, it's no wonder that something gave.
Ankiel has quite a few demons behind him. His father is a drug dealer by trade, has been for most of Ankiel's life, and is continually in and out of jail. Ankiel was not aware of this fact until his late teens.
Not to get psychoanalytical, but you have to wonder if one fact relates to the other. It must be awfully hard to have a recover fully from discovering that your father is a career drug dealer, and it seems it would especially hard to do so when you're spending all your time making an inhumanly rapid ascent to major league superstardom.
The total may just be too much psychological strain for one human being to endure, especially one who should be going to keg parties and sleeping through class, not starting NLCS games.
But anyway, this is all conjecture. I'd be interested to learn more about the personal lives of Steve Blass, Steve Sax, Mackey Sasser, Chuck Knoblauch, etc. to see if there are any common themes among them.
Hitters To Watch
Anyway, since I don't have time or resources to do that rather heavy research, I'll write about an easy, fun topic.
Everybody loves "Players to Watch" columns. I like them because they remind us how stars are truly developed. Baseball isn't like other sports -- most of the time, it takes a guy several years, even if he has tremendous talent, to develop on the major league level. For every Mark McGwire, who hit 49 home runs as a rookie, there's a Barry Bonds, who hit .223 in his first year.
This column is devoted to the Bondses, the guys who were expected to be gangbusters with their first major-league at-bat, but instead had mediocre rookie years. These represent the large majority of Hall-of Fame careers: These guys have to spend a few years in the majors adapting and then break through in their mid-twenties to become stars.
I suppose I should do a similar thing for pitchers. And there are a few that definitely qualify as major-leaguers poised for greatness. I'd start by picking Javier Vazquez, Glendon Rusch, Bruce Chen, Eric Milton and Jeff Weaver.
But I don't dare. Pitchers are much more volatile and unpredictable than hitters. On top of that, they're more susceptible to career-destroying injuries that cut short brilliant careers: Just look at Matt Morris and Kerry Wood. Nope, predicting pitcher performance is a fool's game, and momma didn't raise no fool.
So besides pitchers, I've picked one breakout candidate per position, from either league. I've also picked one honorable mention, who deserves to mentioned, honorably. No one who would qualify as a rookie in 2001 is allowed; they have to have gone through some major-league hard knocks. If every one of these guys doesn't end up on a few All-Star teams, I hereby make a solemn vow to eat my hat.
1B: Pat Burrell (PHI): Many thought Burrell would explode in his 2000 rookie year -- he did, sort of, but his was one of those polite, low-key, mellow type of explosions. He still ended up hitting .260 with a .359 OBP and a .463 SLG. Look for 30 home runs in 2001 and a big pyrotechnics for years to come.
Honorable mention at first goes to Paul Konerko of the White Sox. At age 25 he already has passed through the gauntlets of being a phenom, struggling, being traded around, and then settling into an organization who knows what they have in him. He has had two solid years and is capable of a great one soon.
2B: Todd Walker (COL): Can a 28-year-old player who hit .316 in 1998 really be considered a future-breakout star? Well, there aren't a lot of other candidates at second; most have already become stars. Jose Ortiz of Oakland would be a good choice, but he's a rookie, and doesn't qualify in this race. So we're left with Walker, who should get back to his old ways after fleeing the wrath of Tom "Grumpy Old Man" Kelly to the hitter's paradise of Coors Field, where he had a .544 slugging percentage in the last half of 2000.
Honorable mention goes to Carlos Febles of Kansas City. He had a terrible sophomore slump last year, but no worries -- he was just hobbled by injuries. This year he's ready to continue his progression into a good, if not great, player.
SS: Miguel Tejada (OAK): He already hit 30 home runs with 115 RBIs, what more "breaking out" does he have to do? Well, he needs to break into the holy troika of AL shortstops (A-Rod, Garciaparra, Jeter), for starters. And he still has room for improvement: He's only 25 in 2001, and despite the impressive power numbers, his averages weren't up to his ability yet: .275 BA, .349 OBP, .479 SLG. He has made major strides in the past three years, and another one this year would make him as good as Jeter.
Honorable mention goes to Edgar Renteria of the Cardinals. It seems like he's been around forever, but he's only 24, and has gotten a little better each of the past five years. Shortstop is wide open in the NL; he and Rafael Furcal should be the perennial All-Stars very soon.
3B: Eric Chavez (OAK): And you know, Oakland could really could use another All-Star-quality hitter -- I think they're down to fifteen now. The only thing keeping Chavez from competing with Troy Glaus for top honors among AL third basemen is his relative inability to hit lefties, a problem which also plagued Shawn Green, Carlos Delgado and Johnny Damon early in their careers. Chavez has time to work on it -- he's only 23 -- and if he doesn't solve it this year, he will in 2002.
Picking just one guy for third base, by the way, is tough. Adrian Beltre of the Dodgers could be the better choice than Chavez, but his progression has been a bit slower, and he's a year younger. But, he had a bang-up second half in 2000, which usually means good things for the next year. You make the call between this pair.
The honorable mention behind these two is Pittsburgh's Aramis Ramirez, who has been jerked around by a clueless organization and may not even have a starting spot, despite being a terrific talent. He has now totaled 500 major-league at-bats in a fractured career, and could do great things if he got the chance.
C: Mitch Meluskey (DET): Houston traded him away because he got on Jeff Bagwell's nerves. Gotta keep Bagwell happy I suppose, but this particular jerk is a tremendous hitter who will help jerk the Tigers into contention. His defense and hitting against lefties still need work, but he should still compete with Jorge Posada as the second-best catcher in the league.
Honorable mention: Ben Petrick of the Rockies only technically qualifies for the title of "breakout player" -- he won't be a rookie in 2001, but he's only had 208 at-bats. But in the process of his ascent he'll still be one of the top five catchers in the NL. And yes, playing in Colorado will help, and not just in stats.
OF: J.D. Drew (STL): Man, writing this column is like shooting fish in a barrel. Dead fish. With an Uzi. Obviously, Drew will be a superstar soon. He's a talent on par with Ankiel, but didn't immediately bash up the league, so people forgot about him. In two full years, he has already progressed from a .242 BA, .340 OBP .424 SLG season in 1999 to a .295-.401-.479 in 2000. He's 25 this year and due for another major step up. Hopefully, being under the thumb of Tony "Grumpy Old Man" LaRussa, who inexplicably refused to play him regularly last year, won't make him another Todd Walker.
OF: Lance Berkman (HOU): He's always had the power, and has been eased into a major-league role by an organization with a terrific track record with youngsters. They got rid of Roger Cedeno to make room for him, and he's at that perfect age, 25. He may have already arrived, really: in 2000, he hit 21 homers in 353 at-bats.
OF: Mark Quinn (KC): Much like Berkman, Quinn is a young, under-appreciated big bopper who has already flexed his muscles in the bigs (26 HR in 560 career at-bats) and is at a peak age (27). With Damon gone, Quinn has plenty of room in the lineup.
Honorable mentions: Seattle's Ichiro Suzuki. "Wait, he doesn't count, he's a rookie!" Lemme tell you something: When you call players who have starred in the Japanese majors for years "rookies," you are disrespecting the legitimacy of the Japanese leagues. Hideo Nomo was not a rookie when he won the Rookie of the Year, and neither was Kazuhiro Sasaki.
Suzuki is a veteran who decided to join us folks on the other side of the pond, and he'll most likely adjust quickly and become another Johnny Damon. When he'll do it is what I'm not sure about; no non-pitching star from Japan has excelled in the majors, so there's no precedent on which to work. That's why he's an honorable mention instead of one of the front-liners.
Mark Kotsay of the Marlins has spent three full years now learning how to hit, leading most to believe that he never will. But last year he improved across the board, and at 25, he's ready for his close-up.
Todd Hollandsworth of the Rockies rounds out the field. An odd inclusion, I'll grant you. But there's a lot of buzz about him after he pulled a Todd Walker and resurrected his sagging stardom with a late-season Colorado surge. I always thought he was overrated, even when he was winning the Rookie of the Year, but I'm willing to believe that, at age 28 and in a grand hitting arena, he's ready to shine.
Note well which teams have a few of these guys: Colorado, Oakland, St. Louis, Kansas City. I'm pessimistic about Kansas City's ability to construct a pitching staff, but the other three are the teams of the future.
That's enough for one day. Any comments?
