Heard About Xbox? Microsoft Hopes So
Gates Wants You To Bypass PlayStation2 And Wait For His Game Machine
The reason is FUD, and we're not talking Elmer.
(For background on the game-box grudge match, see "The Huge Stakes Behind The Video Game Wars.")
Elmer Fudd is the hapless hunter doomed to be tormented by that Wascally Wabbit, Bugs Bunny. FUD, on the other hand, is the acronym for Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt, a marketing strategy brought to fame by IBM and polished to perfection by Microsoft.
If you understand FUD, you will have an easier time assessing whether you'd rather buy the PlayStation2 or wait for the Xbox.
Blinding The Customer
FUD is similar to "deer shining," an illegal hunting practice. Deer are graceful creatures that go about their business, bounding through the woods, looking for food. They're naturally skittish unless caught in a strong beam of light at night. Then, they stop and stare at the source of the light, frozen in position, with an uncomprehending look -- something like Gomer Pyle trying to figure out the meaning of E=MC2. At that point, graceful creature becomes dead meat. The light creates fear, uncertainty and doubt.
Here's the marketing definition of FUD from O'Reilly and Associates: "A marketing tactic (which many used to accuse IBM of using) to discourage buying from the competition. The allegation is that starting (possibly exaggerated) rumors of products or features that don't yet exist (usually because they are not yet ready) would scare potential purchasers into delaying purchasing decisions (or deciding not to buy from the competition at all) for fear that they will purchase the wrong product. See IBM and Microsoft."
With that definition firmly in the front of our minds -- try not to feel the hunter's cross hairs zeroing in -- let's look at some recent news about the Xbox game machine (shipping in about a year) and how that might affect your purchase of the competing PlayStation2 (shipping the end of October).
Speed Vs. Memory
First off, Microsoft has revved up the speed of the computer's Pentium III processor to 733 MHz. The PlayStation2 uses a 300 MHz Emotion Engine processor, a new proprietary chip manufactured by Sony.
Advantage Microsoft, right? Not really.
Sony's Emotion Engine is a 128-bit processor; the Pentium III is 32 bits. So, while the Sony chip is less than half as fast, it processes instructions that are four times as large. Said another way, this is like comparing apples to Volvos; you'll just have to see which works best for you.
The much more interesting leak is that the Xbox will now feature a 40-gigabyte hard drive, half of which will be partitioned as a digital-video recorder.
Now, that's interesting news. Imagine a computer in your home entertainment center that not only has access to the Web, plays CDs and DVDs, but can also record your favorite TV shows.
If it turns out to be true, it'll be a great component. On the down side, it'll cost $10 more per month for a required membership on MSN, Microsoft's online service, over and above the $10 per month charged to be on Microsoft's game network.
Feeling BeFUDdled?
With digital-video recording as an option, Microsoft has me firmly in the cross hairs for an Xbox, and I'm not even much of a game player. Think about it. One box to replace a DVD player, a CD player and a VCR, not to mention the Web-surfing function of a PC. I can get rid of three old components and add the capabilities of a fourth -- all in one box.
I'm really staring into the light now.
But wait! I don't particularly like Microsoft. I don't want to change ISPs. And I don't like to pay monthly fees for additional services -- that's why I prefer ReplayTV's digital-video recorder, which costs more initially, over the TiVo recorder, which costs less but requires you to pay a monthly fee for program listings. (Click for a comparison of ReplayTV and Tivo.)
And, oh yeah, the Xbox won't be available for another year!
Who Else Is A FUDdy Duddy?
Thank goodness: The light went out before my mouth hung open and I started to drool.
That's the effect of FUD. It makes you forget your own best interests.
Brian Martin has published a Web article titled "The Newbie's Guide to Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt" that lists the 12 elements of FUD so you can better understand and protect yourself from this dreaded malady.
I recommend the article, but it got me to thinking: Shouldn't there be some way to list corporations by their FUD ratings? And businesses aren't the only ones who, for competitive reasons, try to cloud the minds of the general public. Shouldn't there be some way to assign a FUD Factor for politicians, too?
Well, I came up with a method, certainly unscientific, but heck, it is a lot of fun.
Go to the search engine Google.com, type in the words "fear," "uncertainty" and "doubt" and the corporation or individual's name, and submit the search. Note the number of results that the search engine finds: That's the company or individual's FUD Factor.
I ran the unscientific FUD factors on some icons of modern culture and came back with an unscientific ranking.
Microsoft, as expected, came in number one with the most FUD hits of all. IBM ranked at no. 5, preceded by Apple, President Clinton and AOL.
Interestingly, Newt Gingrich, Clinton's archrival, placed at 22, one place behind Hillary Clinton.
And in the Personal FUD category, President Clinton, at no. 3, holds a wide lead over no. 6, AOL's Steve Case; no. 9, Bill Gates; and no. 10, Apple's Steve Jobs. Gates' crown prince, Steve Ballmer, barely registers, at no. 22.
This year's presidential rivals, George W. Bush and Al Gore come in at 13 and 14 on the list, but with Bush showing a significantly higher FUD Factor. Could the FUD Factor be an indicator of a close race leaning towards Gore?
And finally, bringing up the rear, Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura at 24 and yours truly at 25. See, you can trust me for a lack of FUD.
FUDge The Numbers
Herewith is the first-ever FUD Factor 25.
1. Microsoft -- 5,080 FUD hits
2. Apple -- 4,920
3. President Clinton -- 4,290
4. AOL -- 3,990
5. IBM -- 3,820
6. Steve Case -- 3,380
7. Gateway -- 3,150
8. Intel -- 2,810
9. Bill Gates -- 2,360
10. Steve Jobs -- 1,670
11. Dell -- 1,360
12. Compaq -- 1,120
13. George W. Bush -- 875
14. Al Gore -- 791
15. Sony -- 695
16. Michael Dell -- 515
17. Amiga -- 501
18. AT&T -- 462
19. AMD -- 394
20. Hillary Clinton -- 331
21. Newt Gingrich -- 235
22. Steve Ballmer -- 132
23. Transmeta -- 103
24. Jesse Ventura -- 42
25. Tom Egan -- 28
Who else should be included on the list of the top perpetrators of fear, uncertainty and doubt? Post your opinion in our online forum by clicking here. And lest we forget, are you interested in a PlayStation2, Xbox, something different, or none of the above? Post your opinion in the forum by clicking here or just send them to us for possible publication in a future column: E-mail egan@ibsys.com.
--Tom Egan has worked the information business from photography and journalism to video production and online editing. He writes about technology from his home in Saint Paul, Minn., within three blocks of four bars that serve Guinness on tap. He can be reached at egan@ibsys.com.
