Staring Down A Saints-Steelers Super Bowl?

First Half Of NFL Season Provides A Few Surprises

Patrick Donnelly, Staff Writer
November 5, 2000, 7:12 p.m. EST

Here we are, halfway through the NFL season, and only one thing is clear -- there are no dominant teams in the league this year. Every team has at least one major flaw. For example, the Rams, Vikings, Colts and 49ers can put points on the board with anybody, but their defenses range from suspect to putrid. The Ravens, Redskins, Steelers, Bills, Giants, Titans and Dolphins are about as smash-mouth as you can get on D, but their offenses make Pat Buchanan shout, "Hey, let's open it up a bit!" at the TV screen.

There are a handful of teams that fit into a fair-to-middlin' group on both sides of the ball -- Tampa Bay, Kansas City, New Orleans, Detroit, Denver, the Jets and the Raiders all have shown flashes of brilliance and moments of staggering incompetence, but for the most part they have been solid on both offense and defense. And that balance is what you need to earn the right to kiss the Lombardi Trophy in late January.

Because really, when you look at last year, the Rams had the defense to back up their three-ring aerial circus. Doesn't that seem like a distant memory now? In 1999, the Rams' 36 takeaways were tied for sixth in the league. They were No. 1 against the rush and No. 6 in overall yards. Some of their numbers were skewed because they generally had huge leads and were able to relax on defense, but when the Rams defense had to make a play in the postseason, it made a play. Or a bunch of them, as evidenced by the way they held the Bucs to six points in the NFC title game and the Titans to 16 in the Super Bowl.

This year, of course, the Rams are the NFL's version of the Sacramento Kings. Their blinding offense has often been only one step ahead of their sieve-like defense. So far, the formula has been good enough to produce the best record in the NFC, but if they think this will get the job done in January, they're sorely mistaken.

And speaking of January, if we were there instead of here right now, this is how the playoffs would shake out:

NFC Seeds

1. St. Louis (7-1) NFC West champ
2. Minnesota (7-1) NFC Central champ
3. N.Y. Giants (6-2) NFC East champ
4. Washington (6-3) Wild Card #1
5. Detroit (5-3) Wild Card #2
6. New Orleans (5-3) Wild Card #3

AFC Seeds

1. Oakland (7-1) AFC West champ
2. Tennessee (7-1) AFC Central champ
3. New York Jets (6-2) AFC East champ
4. Miami (6-2) Wild Card #1
5. Indianapolis (6-2) Wild Card #2
6. Pittsburgh (5-3) Wild Card #3

Of course, the second half of the season will allow the schedule to make up any inequities that cause some current imbalances -- for instance, the Colts play four of their final eight games against the Jets and Dolphins, and the Giants will make up that game in hand on the Skins next week. And of course, everybody's preseason darlings in Tampa Bay will get a chance to recover from that nasty four-game losing streak.

But take a closer look at those midway-point playoff teams. A few surprises, no? Hello, New Orleans? They haven't had a winner down there since the days of Bobby Hebert, but now the bayou is banking on Ricky Williams and an iron-fist defense to carry the franchise to its first playoff victory. The remaining schedule has its soft and gooey spots -- a pair with the Niners, one each with Carolina and Atlanta -- so 9-7 and a spot on the playoff bubble is not out of the question for a team that went 3-13 last season.

How about Pittsburgh? Be honest -- you had them written off when they started 0-3, didn't you? Yeah, I did too. In fact, there's only one guy I can think of who might have seen this coming. But give coach Bill Cowher and his team credit -- they have recovered from sure disaster and put together five straight wins. It will probably take 10-6 to qualify for the January dance in the AFC, and the Steelers play four of their final eight games against teams on the list above -- at Tennessee and the Giants, vs. Oakland and Washington. So they'll have to spring at least one upset down the stretch to put themselves in position to keep playing. But who would have thought a team quarterbacked by Kent Graham and Kordell Stewart would even make it this far?

And of course, on the high-performance end of the showroom floor, you've got a surprise in the 7-1 Vikings. QB Daunte Culpepper has opened eyes with his stunning combination of strength, speed and poise in leading the Vikings to first place in the NFC Central. Head coach Dennis Green is showing that he has the Midas touch this year, and this is starting to feel a lot like 1998 on the Northern Plains.

Of course, there are a few revisionist historians in these parts who claim that Green's decision-making processes have always been beyond reproach, and that any criticism of the coach must be based on his race. That theory is proven laughable when you examine the chronology of recent events. If Green knew that Culpepper would have been this good this soon, he would not have flown to Miami last March and begged Dan Marino to finish his career with a one-year stint in a purple jersey. And just because young Daunte has been this good in 2000, that doesn't necessarily erase the fact that the 1998 Vikings were one play away from the Super Bowl, had a chance to add an impact pass rusher in Jevon Kearse, but passed on him to build for the future with Culpepper. Daunte didn't throw a pass in 1999, the Vikings' defense took a huge step back, and they flopped in the second round of the playoffs in St. Louis.

But that's splitting hairs at this point, I suppose. Right now the Vikings have to be your stunner of the year at 7-1, and with a schedule that is mallow mar-soft in the next eight games, 13-3 is not out of the question. Ah but that defense . . . repeating an earlier theme, it won't cut it in January.

Let's bust off a couple of midseason awards before we get to an all-NFL edition of Shout-Outs.

• Offensive MVP -- Marshall Faulk, Rams. He continues to redefine the running back position and is the rare back who is a threat to score from a yard out or 80 yards out.
• Defensive MVP -- Junior Seau, Chargers. How do you honor a guy on a team that's 0-8? Simple -- when he leaves every ounce of his soul on the field every Sunday, even when he knows a victory won't get his team any closer to the playoffs.
• Rookie of the Year -- Chris Samuels, Redskins. Left tackle is one of the most important positions on the field, and this rookie has not been intimidated while protecting his QB's blind side. He's helped anchor a line that has allowed only 15 sacks in nine games and has cleared the way for RB Stephen Davis' 864 rushing yards, second in the NFL.
• Coach of the Year -- Jim Haslett, Saints. With all due respect to the job that Green has done implementing a new QB and two new offensive linemen in Minnesota, Haslett faced the gargantuan task of exorcising 30 years of really, really bad karma in New Orleans. He also took over a team that had basically one draft pick (Williams) in the last two years. And now they're covering Mike Ditka's tracks and clearing the way for a bright future on the bayou.
• Funky Stat of the Year -- Since Sept. 24, the Rams have scored 21 touchdowns in four games and the Ravens have scored zero touchdowns in five games.
• If I Had the First Seven Picks in a Midseason Fantasy Football Draft, I Would Take These Seven Guys and Kick Your Butt -- QB Brian Griese; RBs Edgerrin James and Ricky Williams; WRs Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison and Isaac Bruce; K Matt Stover.
• Streetfight That Probably Only I Would Want to See -- No, not Warren Sapp vs. Orlando Pace or Jeff George vs. June Jones or even Stephen Davis vs. Michael Westbrook. How about punters Mitch Berger of the Vikings and Hunter Smith of the Colts? They both run like receivers, hit like strong safeties and are built like linebackers of years ago. It would be a fun match.

5. Randy Moss -- Love your game, but you've gotta learn that "good touch, bad touch" rule. The refs consider them all "bad touches."
4. Houston, Jacksonville & Detroit -- Karnac says, "What are three latest candidates to host a Bills Super Bowl loss?"
3. Jason Sehorn -- But it's hard to work up any sympathy for a guy who's getting nursed back to health by Angie Harmon.
2. Gary Anderson -- I won't say it if you won't. Wide left. OK, I said it. But this should help ease the pain for, oh, ten seconds or so.
1. Corey Dillon -- Sure, you saw this coming. You also knew who Kurt Warner was before last September, right?

Previous Donnelly Columns:
October 12, 2000: Old Friends Renew Acquaintances
October 5, 2000: Only One Debate Really Matters ...
September 29, 2000: I Confess: I'm The Man Behind The Curtain!
September 14, 2000: Knight: Alpha Male, Phi Beta Kappa Jerk
August 31, 2000: Devil Rays Give Baseball A Black Eye
August 17, 2000: Too Much Tiger?
August 10, 2000: Ranting On Dennis Miller

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