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Soundbytes: 2010 Grammy Awards Predictions

Grammys To Air Jan. 31

David Hyland, Staff Writer

UPDATED: 5:32 pm CST February 2, 2010

Supply and demand is the iron law of capitalism and even a prestigious award show like Grammys isn't immune from having to conform, even reorient itself, to suit the evolving whims of its audience.

The music industry potentates know that with the industry continuing to sag thanks to the twin evils of illegal downloading and media competition, the Grammy show has to adapt in order to keep a grasp on its diminishing market share. They don't need anymore bad news.

But the show does still have an attractive draw: musical performances. As in other industries, what was once given away or tacked onto an existing widget often can grow to become for more essential. At the beginning of the 20th Century, it was song publishing -- not the selling of records -- was the preeminent way the industry made its money. It was only after record players became a household staple that the industry reoriented itself to the creation and distribution of music itself.

The same holds true of the Grammy telecast. While the awards themselves were once the pivotal fixture of the event, they're increasingly becoming irrelevant. Instead, it's the Grammy shows' performances -- likely added 50 years ago to spice things up a bit -- that have become the only factor keeping this gig on TV. Few musical events can draw a galaxy of music stars together at one moment in time and the shows organizers know they need big-name artists to ensure the Grammys' survival. It's one of the few nights of the year that music can take center stage in a time of increasing competition.

In the end, who wins these awards doesn't really matter. It's a parlor game, but because the sight of Taylor Swift walking out with an armful of awards will likely give her a little sales boost, let's do some prognosticating anyway.

Here's my list of predictions on who'll walk away with the most coveted phonograph statues this year:

Record Of The Year

Beyonce "Halo"
The Black Eyed Peas "I Gotta Feeling"
Kings of Leon "Use Somebody"
Lady Gaga. "Poker Face"
Taylor Swift "You Belong With Me"

The prediction: Taylor Swift. Sometime before her infamous appearance at MTV Video Music Awards last fall, country pixie Taylor Swift solidified her hold on the country music world and even a few rock and pop fans who won't let themselves admit they like yeehaw country music. As such, her appearance at that show was her official unveiling as the new Cinderella of country pop and Grammy night should be no different. This will be crowning triumph of a string of awards she should grab Sunday night. And with no Kayne West likely to attend, she should be able to claim this award without competition. As the sole representative of rawk in this most auspicious category, the Kings of Leon could benefit from divided pop loyalities, but it's a long shot.

Album Of The Year

Beyonce "I Am … Sasha Fierce"
The Black Eyed Peas "The E.N.D."
Lady Gaga "The Fame"
Dave Matthews Band "Big Whiskey And The Groogrux King"
Taylor Swift "Fearless"

The prediction: Lady Gaga. While Swift should dominate in other categories and Beyonce is the biggest star in this contest, Lady Gaga's unlikely ascent to superstardom is the only other "Rocky"-like story besides Swift. However, her album was more consistently powerful and provocative than Swift's "Fearless," restating her potential as an artist with a shelf life. The Black Eyed Peas aren't quite the hit factory that they used to be and the Dave Matthews Band was included here only because of their concert drawing power.

Song Of The Year

Lady Gaga "Poker Face"
Maxwell "Pretty Wings"
Beyonce "Single Ladies (Put A Ring On It)"
Kings of Leon "Use Somebody"
Taylor Swift "You Belong To Me"

The prediction: Taylor Swift. Can anyone imagine little Taylor Swift trying to corral an armful of little trophies in her jangly arms? You'll probably see it her try on Sunday night. The Kings of Leon could prove a contender in this category, but the band received a few Grammy nominations last year for their other major single, "Sex on Fire," and seem like an outside chance against Swift the pop-music juggernaut.

Best New Artist

Zac Brown Band
Keri Wilson
MGMT
Silversun Pickups
The Ting Tings

The prediction: MGMT. Like several other Grammy categories this year, Best New Artist might also be one of the those that actually recognizes a musician or musicians at just the right time that they're creatively peaking. Without the major pop-industry muscle to pump up their efforts, the fact the MGMT will wins this award boils down to their last album. No album attempted to update the Flaming Lips' psychedelic dreamscapes with electronica to make a mind-melting aural universe. Zac Brown Band will stand out for country voters, as will Keri Wilson in the pop diehards, but MGMT is the odds on favorite.

Best Pop Vocal Album

The Black Eyed Peas "The E.N.D."
Colbie Caillat "Breakthrough"
Kelly Clarkson "All I Ever Wanted"
The Fray "The Fray"
Pink "Funhouse"

The prediction: Kelly Clarkson. Thank American Idol. While the Black Eyed Peas and Pink have tired out their welcome among fickle pop fans, a shrewd Clarkson has shown some reality-TV-forced flexibility that keeps her on the charts consistently in recent years. (To be fair to Pink, she has tried to remake her image, but her tact has been focused on emotionally oversharing and a bit too aggressive, burning her bridge to sincerely head back in a pop vein.) Clarkson, however, has never pretended to be anything, but what she is: a very good pop singer.

Best Female Pop Vocal Performance

Adele "Hometown Glory"
Beyonce "Halo"
Taylor Swift "You Belong With Me"
Katy Perry "Hot N COld"
Pink "Sober"

The prediction: Taylor Swift. It's odd. four of these nominees were in this exact category last year, recognized for other songs on their most-recent albums. The odd duck? Taylor Swift. Naughty Katy Perry could prove some competition, but Swift has broader appeal among country, rock and pop fields.

Best Male Pop Vocal Performance

John Legend "This Time"
Maxwell "Love You"
Jason Mraz "Make It Mine"
Seal "If You Don't Know Me By Now"
Stevie Wonder "All About The Love Again"

The prediction: Jason Mraz. Blame it on artists with similar constituencies cancelling each other out. Maxwell and John Legend both appeal to the older R&B and soul devotees while Stevie Wonder and Seal are worn-out musical dinosaurs. One is being honored for albums he released nearly 40 years and the other for being a pop-standards shill who is married to Heidi Klum. That leaves the vanilla singer-songwriter Mraz as the only standout.

Best Pop Performance By A Duo Or Group With Vocal

The Black Eyed Peas "I Gotta Feeling"
Bon Jovi "We Weren't Born To Follow"
The Fray "Never Say Never"
Hall and Oates "Sara Smile"
MGMT "Kids"

The prediction: MGMT. This is a true upset, but not because the recognition is underserved. Rather, MGMT is the least commercial of all the candidates in this group and yet their song was clearly the best because of its ingenious aural aesthetics and its space-rock hook. The Black Eyed Peas' single didn't quite move the way their old hits did on the charts, same for classic rockers Bon Jovi, but both have received recognition in years past. Sympathy will only get you so far. Speaking of, who let Hall and Oates in here? Really?

Best Contemporary R&B Album

Beyonce "I Am … Sasha Fierce"
Jamie Foxx "Intuition"
Pleasure P "The Introduction Of Marcus Cooper"
Trey Songz "Ready"
T-Pain "Thr33 Ringsz"

The prediction: Beyonce. This might be the one category in which Beyonce can break through. With no Lady Gaga or Taylor Swift to cause problems, the "Sasha Fierce" should have plenty of space to shine. Her album was the premier R&B disc of the past year and this category's roster of weak rivals seems tailor made for hercakewalk.

Best R&B Album

Anthony Hamilton "The Point Of It All"
India.Arie "Testimony: Vol. 2, Love & Polttics"
Ledisi "Turn Me Loose"
Maxwell "Blacksummers' Night"
Charlie Wilson "Uncle Charlie"

The prediction: Maxwell. This category is typically reserved for R&B heretics. It's populated by performers with limited commercial potential, but who've cultivated loyal fans outside the mainstream. Maxwell, once the prince of neo-soul, has returned from the R&B limbo with his latest album. While he will likely be muscled out in the other high-profile categories he was nominated in, he should have a leg up in this race.

Best Rock Song

Pearl Jam "The Fixer"
U2 "I'll Go Crazy If I Don't Go Crazy Tonight"
Green Day "21 Guns"
Kings of Leon "Use Somebody"
Bruce Springsteen "Working On A Dream"

The prediction: Kings of Leon. For young upstarts in the rock game as the Kings of Leon are, this category is a Murderers' Row they must face down. Lucky for these Southern rockers turned power-pop outfit, most of the rock mega-stars they're running against don't have a single quite as brilliant as "Use Somebody." Springsteen and Pearl Jam have surely seen better days while U2 couldn't quite put it together correctly on their last album, rendering "I'll Go Crazy …" a near-miss. With their idols faltering, the Kings should have the advantage.

Best Rock Album

AC/DC "Black Ice"
Eric Clapton and Steve Winwood "Live From Madison Square Garden"
Green Day "21st Century Breakdown"
Dave Matthews Band "Big Whiskey And The Groogrux King"
U2 "No Line On The Horizon"

The prediction: AC/DC. In the early '90s, AC/DC released "Razor's Edge," which demonstrated they could still mine their unlikely vein of rauch-rock for gems. The band had several killer discs in the late '70s and early '80s based strictly on their well-worn formula of nasty power chords and double entrendes. Since then, the band has been less active and less successful. Until "Black Ice," that is. Brian Johnson and the Young brothers proved there's new life to be had in old jokes. U2, on the other hand, has had trouble repeating this formula, but they might still garner enough sympathy votes. And who knew Eric Clapton and Steve Windwood recorded a live album together?

Best Solo Rock Vocal Performance

Bob Dylan "Beyond Here Lies Nothin'"
John Fogerty "Change In The Weather"
Bruce Springsteen "Working On A Dream"
Prince "Dreamer"
Neil Young "Fork in The Road"

The prediction: Bob Dylan. "Beyond Here Lies Nothin'" is not only the best song on this docket, but also one of Dylan's best efforts in a decade. It reeks with Bayou voodoo mystery and a menacing vocal that let's the old man of rock 'n' roll sound dangerous one last time. John Fogerty might have resurrected his old country-rock persona, but not his songwriting A game. Similarly, Springsteen and Young's albums were just bad records by living legends.

Best Hard Rock Performance

AC/DC "War Machine"
Alice in Chains "Check My Brain"
Linkin Park "What I've Done"
Metallica "The Unforgiven III"
Nickleback "Burn It To The Ground"

The prediction: Metallica. After the legendary Best Metal Performance debacle of the late '80s, Metallica has to win nearly every Grammy it's ever nominated for. Elder metalheads shuffled off to the hard rock category, they should dominate this contest. If AC/DC is upset in the Best Rock Album sweepstakes, they have a strong claim to this award. A reunited Alice in Chains could elicit some sympathy, but this song wasn't a spectacular return.

Best Metal Performance

Lamb of God "Set To Fail"
Judas Priest "Dissident Aggressor"
Megadeth "Head Crusher"
Ministry "Senor Peligro"
Slayer "Hate Worldwide"

The prediction: Lamb of God. While all of these groups -- save Lamb of God -- can claim to be crucial influences on today's headbanger scene, only the young stallions in Lamb of God are thrashing like they mean it. It's unlikely that nostalgia for yesterday's heroes will be able to forestall the ascension of the next generation of metal.

Best Alternative Music Album

David Byrne and Brian Eno "Everything That Happens Will Happen Today"
Death Cab For Cutie "The Open Door"
Depeche Mode "Sounds Of The Universe"
Phoenix "Wolfgang Amadeus Phoenix"
Yeah Yeah Yeahs "It's Blitz!"

The prediction: Phoenix. The French band easily had one of the biggest and best rock albums of 2009. Excluded from some of the major Grammy races for unknown reasons, viewers can expect them to easily snatch this award. David Byrne and Brian Eno's collaboration could solicit votes for those who love experimentation and the Yeah Yeah Yeahs are ever trending towards a masterful album, but it's Phoenix's time now.

Best Rap Album

Common "Universal Mind Control"
Eminem "Relapse"
Flo Rida "R.O.O.T.S."
Mos Def "The Ecstatic"
Q-Tip "The Renaissance"

The prediction: Q-Tip. Another upset. Eminem would seem the favorite if only his album was better. He returned last year from self-imposed exile, but with his skills noticeably weaker than during his drug-fueled glory days. Common and Mos Def were nominated to reward their innovative approach to rhyming and beatmaking, but both of their albums weren't the strongest. Q-Tip, by contrast, had to wait years and endure label politics to see his jazz and funk experimentation tracked shortly after Sept. 11 to hit the markets. The former Tribe Called Quest frontman is a hip-hop survivor now and voters are likely ready to recognize his past as well as his present.

Best Rap Song

Drake "Best I Ever Had"
Kid Cudi "Day 'N' Nite"
T.I. and Justin Timberlake "Dead and Gone"
Jay-Z "D.O.A. (Death Of Auto-Tune)"
Jay-Z, Rihanna and Kayne West "Run This Town"

The prediction: Jay-Z. With two nominations, it's likely Jay-Z might see his support split. However, no track on this list pulsates with the brilliant mass appeal and the biting criqute of today's pop music formulas like "D.O.A. (Death Of Auto-Tune)." Kanye West's poisonous presence should steer enough Grammy voters away from "Run This Town" the advantage. Kid Cudi might benefit if the two Jay-Z noms are evenly divided.

Best Country Album

Zac Brown "The Foundation"
George Strait "Twang"
Taylor Swift "Fearless"
Keith Urban "Defying Gravity"
Lee Ann Womack "Call Me Crazy"

The prediction: Taylor Swift. No competition.

Best Country Song

Taylor Swift "White Horse"
Billy Currington "People Are Crazy"
Jamey Johnson "High Cost Of Living"
Lady Antebellum "I Run To You"
Trace Adkins "All I Ask For Anymore"

The prediction: Taylor Swift. It would seem country voters might want to spread the award wealth around and not give this one to Swift. And yet, her album dwarfs all other releases last year. Her success Sunday night should earn her a spot alongside Garth Brooks and Shania Twain as true giants of the genre. Trace Adkins and Jamey Johnson are holdovers in this category for last year and it's unlikely that they'll do any better. Lady Antebellum could be a dark horse.

Best Contemporary Folk/Americana Album

Bob Dylan "Together Through Life"
Levon Helm "Electric Dirt"
Willie Nelson and Asleep at the Wheel "Wille And The Wheel"
Wilco "Wilco (The Album)"
Lucinda Williams "Little Honey"

The prediction: Levon Helm. The former cancer-stricken vocalist for the Band won a Grammy last year for his sensational "Dirt Farmer," signaling that Helm was as much of a musical treasure as the country, folk and hillbilly classics that he magnificently cherished on that album. "Electric Dirt" is less impressive, but Helm's life story of musical highs and tough blows should still resonate. Helm's old boss Bob Dylan is more deserving on an artistic level for "Together Through Life" and could steal this award away. Somewhere, a curmudgeonly Jeff Tweedy is likely fuming that after all of his Kraftwerk and Sonic Youth experimentations, he and Wilco are back operating under the alt-country tag again.

Best Electronic/Dance Album